Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4.00%: what changed
The Federal Open Market Committee held its target rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two members voting for a quarter-point rise as inflation stayed above the Fed's 2% goal.
Economy and rates
The numbers that set interest rates — and so the value of every company we cover. Official data from the Fed, Treasury, BLS and BEA, updated daily.
Key indicators
Fed funds target (upper) 3.75–4.00% unchanged 3 Nov · Federal Reserve
10-year Treasury yield 4.94% ▼ 0.04pt vs previous 30 Oct · US Treasury
CPI inflation 3.7% ▲ 0.36pt vs previous September 2026 · BLS
Core PCE inflation (Fed's target measure) 3.1% ▲ 0.09pt vs previous September 2026 · BEA
Unemployment rate 4.2% ▲ 0.10pt vs previous September 2026 · BLS
Payrolls, monthly change +29k ▼ 104k vs previous September 2026 · BLS
Real GDP growth (annualised) 3.40% ▲ 1.20pt vs previous Q3 2026 · BEA
30-year mortgage rate 7.24% ▼ 0.08pt vs previous 29 Oct · Freddie Mac
Rates and markets
Next Fed meeting, Dec 9
0% cut 24% hold 76% hike
Market-implied rate after the meeting: 4.07% · current target range: 3.75% to 4.00% Treasury yields, 2026-10-30
4.56% 2-year 4.94% 10-year +38 bp 2s10s spread
Constant-maturity yields, US Treasury via FRED. The spread is the 10-year minus the 2-year. Probabilities implied by fed funds futures prices, our calculation; not a forecast. Futures from third-party market data, may be delayed.
Fed funds target (upper)2-year Treasury10-year Treasury
Federal Reserve; US Treasury. Daily.
CPICore CPICore PCE Fed target 2%
BLS; BEA. Monthly. The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation.
BLS. Monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
BLS. Monthly.
The yield curve
Treasury yields by maturity, today against a year ago. When short rates sit above long rates (an inverted curve), markets expect rates to fall — historically often ahead of a slowdown.
Now (2026-10-30)A year ago
US Treasury constant-maturity yields via FRED.
Coming up
| Date | Release | Covers | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Jobs report | October 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Tue 10 Nov | Consumer prices (CPI) | October 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Wed 25 Nov | Personal income and PCE inflation | Personal Income and Outlays, October 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Fri 4 Dec | Jobs report | November 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Wed 9 Dec | Fed rate decision (FOMC) | with economic projections | 2:00pm ET |
| Thu 10 Dec | Consumer prices (CPI) | November 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Wed 23 Dec | Personal income and PCE inflation | Personal Income and Outlays, November 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Fri 8 Jan | Jobs report | December 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Wed 13 Jan | Consumer prices (CPI) | December 2026 | 8:30am ET |
| Wed 27 Jan | Fed rate decision (FOMC) | — | 2:00pm ET |
Schedules from the Federal Reserve, BLS and BEA. Times are US Eastern.
Macro updates
Mortgage rates at 7.2%: what it means for buyers, owners and rate-sensitive stocks
The 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.2% from 7.3% a week earlier but remains well above last year's 6.2%, as the 10-year Treasury yield holds near 5.0%. Here is the arithmetic behind payments, refinancing, the lock-in effect and rate-sensitive company valuations.
The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%: what that means for stock valuations
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.98% in late October, still up from 4.08% a year earlier. We show how a one percentage point rise in the discount rate would affect modelled values for three power companies, and what today's rates mean for savers and borrowers.
Mortgage rates at 7.2% keep pressure on buyers and housing turnover
US mortgage rates eased in the latest reading but remain above their year-earlier level. Buyers still face higher financing costs, while homeowners with cheaper existing loans have a reason to delay moving.
Market movers
WTI crude at $103.37 raises fuel costs and supports producers’ cash flow
WTI crude is well above its year-earlier level, supporting producers’ cash receipts while raising costs for fuel users. Headline inflation exceeds core inflation, although the figures do not establish how much oil explains.
US inflation rose to 3.1% in September: what it means for rates
Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%, above the previous reading and its year-earlier level. The increase weakens the evidence of easing inflation, while interest-rate sensitivity remains a material risk in company valuations.
Data: BEA, BLS, Census Bureau, EIA, Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, US Dept of Labor, US Treasury — via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Updated 2026-11-03.