Economy
Inflation, jobs, growth and the Fed, and what each release means for markets.
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Fed holds rates at 3.75%-4.00%: what changed
The Federal Open Market Committee held its target rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October, with two members voting for a quarter-point rise as inflation stayed above the Fed's 2% goal.
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Mortgage rates at 7.2%: what it means for buyers, owners and rate-sensitive stocks
The 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.2% from 7.3% a week earlier but remains well above last year's 6.2%, as the 10-year Treasury yield holds near 5.0%. Here is the arithmetic behind payments, refinancing, the lock-in effect and rate-sensitive company valuations.
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The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%: what that means for stock valuations
The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.98% in late October, still up from 4.08% a year earlier. We show how a one percentage point rise in the discount rate would affect modelled values for three power companies, and what today's rates mean for savers and borrowers.
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Mortgage rates at 7.2% keep pressure on buyers and housing turnover
US mortgage rates eased in the latest reading but remain above their year-earlier level. Buyers still face higher financing costs, while homeowners with cheaper existing loans have a reason to delay moving.
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WTI crude at $103.37 raises fuel costs and supports producers’ cash flow
WTI crude is well above its year-earlier level, supporting producers’ cash receipts while raising costs for fuel users. Headline inflation exceeds core inflation, although the figures do not establish how much oil explains.
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US inflation rose to 3.1% in September: what it means for rates
Core PCE inflation rose to 3.1%, above the previous reading and its year-earlier level. The increase weakens the evidence of easing inflation, while interest-rate sensitivity remains a material risk in company valuations.
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The week in markets: technology fell as gains spread elsewhere
Technology fell 2.0% while health care and smaller companies advanced. Treasury yields eased from their previous readings, although borrowing costs and oil remained above their levels a year earlier.
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US GDP growth accelerated to 3.4% in Q3 2026: what it means for rates
Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter of 2026, faster than the prior quarter but short of last year's pace. Treasury yields eased slightly on the day, still well above where they stood a year earlier.
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The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5%: what that does to stock valuations
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.98%, against 4.08% a year earlier. A higher long-term rate raises the discount rate applied to future cash flows, and our models show which companies that hits hardest.
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The week in markets: tech falls as Nasdaq 100 drops 3.26%, Dow adds 1.32%
A sharp technology sell-off dragged the Nasdaq 100 down 3.26% even as the Dow rose 1.32% and long-term Treasury yields climbed to 5.13%, ahead of next week's Fed decision and GDP data.