undamentalytics Newsletter
Sign in

Fisher Doris F: insider trades

Other at GAP Inc. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 27, 2010 to January 21, 2011.

What happened after Fisher Doris F’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −19.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 −6.9% −3.5% 81% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 −19.1% −13.0% 100% 2 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 −19.2% −13.5% 100% 2 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
GAP Inc GAP —016May 27, 2010January 21, 2011

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
January 21, 2011January 21, 2011 GAP Sale $5,010,000 +6.8%−9.6%−9.5%
January 20, 2011January 19, 2011 GAP Sale $46,200,756 +5.3%−9.5%−6.2%
December 16, 2010December 15, 2010 GAP Sale $17,490,978 −1.0%−11.6%−10.6%
December 14, 2010December 13, 2010 GAP Sale $26,082,013 +0.4%−10.6%−11.0%
December 10, 2010December 9, 2010 GAP Sale $42,870,000 −0.7%−11.0%−13.0%
December 8, 2010December 7, 2010 GAP Sale $33,958,288 −2.8%−13.0%−14.0%
December 6, 2010December 3, 2010 GAP Sale $26,707,500 −6.8%−14.0%−14.4%
November 26, 2010November 24, 2010 GAP Sale $17,544,178 −2.8%−13.7%−11.4%
November 23, 2010November 22, 2010 GAP Sale $55,033,410 −0.8%−11.4%−9.7%
October 19, 2010October 18, 2010 GAP Sale $19,900,000 −4.1%−9.4%−14.6%
October 14, 2010October 13, 2010 GAP Sale $38,180,000 −5.4%−13.1%−8.3%
June 15, 2010June 14, 2010 GAP Sale $15,871,310 −15.2%−32.3%−37.9%
June 11, 2010June 9, 2010 GAP Sale $23,747,000 −22.2%−37.9%−39.3%
June 8, 2010June 7, 2010 GAP Sale $23,496,960 −22.9%−39.3%−37.0%
May 28, 2010May 28, 2010 GAP Sale $1,172,842 −19.0%−35.4%−34.6%
May 27, 2010May 26, 2010 GAP Sale $5,823,832 −19.7%−34.6%−35.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Fisher Doris F traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.