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Farahi Ben: insider trades

10% owner at Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 19, 2012 to October 31, 2017.

What happened after Farahi Ben’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −25.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 85% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −10.2% −8.8% 92% 4 −5.61 0.011 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −25.4% −27.6% 85% 4 0.43 0.70 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −25.8% −26.6% 85% 4 0.44 0.69 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc MCRI —013December 19, 2012October 31, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 31, 2017October 27, 2017 MCRI Sale $813,990 −8.8%−20.3%−17.1%
October 27, 2017October 25, 2017 MCRI Sale $1,504,750 −6.0%−17.8%−8.8%
July 16, 2014July 14, 2014 MCRI Sale $147,700 −12.3%+34.0%+35.7%
December 13, 2013December 11, 2013 MCRI Sale $183,087 −3.3%−27.5%−26.6%
November 6, 2013November 4, 2013 MCRI Sale $136,285 +1.3%−24.9%−26.1%
November 1, 2013October 30, 2013 MCRI Sale $42,239 −2.0%−26.1%−26.3%
October 23, 2013October 21, 2013 MCRI Sale $182,424 −5.3%−44.1%−56.7%
October 18, 2013October 16, 2013 MCRI Sale $633,039 −16.2%−56.7%−52.4%
October 15, 2013October 11, 2013 MCRI Sale $100,000 −16.2%−52.4%−55.6%
August 19, 2013August 16, 2013 MCRI Sale $195,000 −20.3%−59.0%−58.2%
August 13, 2013August 12, 2013 MCRI Sale $194,031 −15.9%−56.8%−53.3%
August 1, 2013July 30, 2013 MCRI Sale $205,381 −21.5%−55.3%−56.1%
December 19, 2012December 17, 2012 MCRI Sale $125,165 −5.3%+76.4%+66.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Farahi Ben traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.