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Yale University: insider trades

Director at JBG Smith Properties. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 19, 2018 to December 12, 2018.

What happened after Yale University’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −14.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 90% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 10 −0.9% −0.1% 50% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 10 −14.2% −15.0% 90% 1 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 10 −14.2% −15.9% 90% 1 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
JBG Smith Properties JBGS —010June 19, 2018December 12, 2018

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 12, 2018December 10, 2018 JBGS Sale $6,395,681 +2.9%−16.0%−14.9%
December 10, 2018December 6, 2018 JBGS Sale $11,776,837 +2.4%−15.2%−17.7%
December 6, 2018December 3, 2018 JBGS Sale $6,392,369 −2.0%−17.6%−12.6%
December 3, 2018November 29, 2018 JBGS Sale $3,979,095 +0.7%−14.7%−13.5%
November 29, 2018November 27, 2018 JBGS Sale $5,995,537 +0.6%−13.0%−14.3%
November 27, 2018November 23, 2018 JBGS Sale $5,003,232 +3.7%−12.0%−19.4%
November 26, 2018November 21, 2018 JBGS Sale $4,004,000 −0.8%−14.3%−17.8%
November 21, 2018November 20, 2018 JBGS Sale $4,019,000 −4.9%−19.4%−19.2%
November 21, 2018November 19, 2018 JBGS Sale $1,214,400 −4.9%−19.4%−16.9%
June 19, 2018June 15, 2018 JBGS Sale $1,545,118 −6.7%+0.3%+4.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Yale University traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.