Miller William G: insider trades

Officer, Director at Miller Industries Inc. No open-market purchases and 62 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 8, 2011 to August 8, 2012.

What happened after Miller William G’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −23.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Miller William G: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	62	−5.2%	−6.3%	69%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	62	−23.6%	−21.2%	100%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	62	−23.7%	−19.6%	100%	2	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Miller Industries Inc MLR	Chairman of the Board	0	62	June 8, 2011	August 8, 2012

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
August 8, 2012	August 6, 2012	MLR	Sale	$165,692	−4.8%	−9.6%	−20.4%
April 4, 2012	April 3, 2012	MLR	Sale	$216,506	+2.1%	−21.3%	−21.9%
April 2, 2012	March 29, 2012	MLR	Sale	$611,512	−1.8%	−21.9%	−18.2%
March 28, 2012	March 26, 2012	MLR	Sale	$201,083	−2.7%	−18.2%	−16.9%
March 21, 2012	March 14, 2012	MLR	Sale	$233,138	−3.3%	−15.1%	−14.6%
February 9, 2012	February 7, 2012	MLR	Sale	$36,241	−11.0%	−11.5%	−13.0%
February 6, 2012	February 2, 2012	MLR	Sale	$85,090	−6.6%	−13.0%	−15.7%
February 1, 2012	January 26, 2012	MLR	Sale	$48,820	−9.6%	−15.7%	−13.0%
January 27, 2012	January 26, 2012	MLR	Sale	$32,230	−5.1%	−19.1%	−13.0%
January 25, 2012	January 24, 2012	MLR	Sale	$32,110	−6.0%	−13.0%	−17.3%
January 4, 2012	January 3, 2012	MLR	Sale	$16,040	−2.2%	−13.7%	−16.2%
December 30, 2011	December 28, 2011	MLR	Sale	$16,120	−0.3%	−16.2%	−15.9%
December 27, 2011	December 22, 2011	MLR	Sale	$48,120	−2.3%	−15.9%	−18.0%
December 21, 2011	December 19, 2011	MLR	Sale	$16,096	−5.6%	−18.0%	−18.7%
December 14, 2011	December 12, 2011	MLR	Sale	$32,440	−7.3%	−21.7%	−24.0%
December 9, 2011	November 30, 2011	MLR	Sale	$112,620	−6.6%	−24.0%	−23.7%
November 16, 2011	November 15, 2011	MLR	Sale	$32,830	−1.9%	−21.5%	−21.0%
November 14, 2011	November 10, 2011	MLR	Sale	$100,842	−3.4%	−21.0%	−27.0%
November 9, 2011	November 7, 2011	MLR	Sale	$231,240	−9.2%	−27.0%	−35.1%
November 4, 2011	November 3, 2011	MLR	Sale	$198,750	−16.7%	−35.1%	−36.5%
November 2, 2011	November 1, 2011	MLR	Sale	$196,400	−20.3%	−36.5%	−38.6%
October 31, 2011	October 27, 2011	MLR	Sale	$309,550	−22.2%	−38.6%	−35.8%
October 26, 2011	October 24, 2011	MLR	Sale	$296,300	−24.7%	−35.8%	−38.2%
October 21, 2011	October 20, 2011	MLR	Sale	$154,720	−26.4%	−38.2%	−41.5%
October 19, 2011	October 17, 2011	MLR	Sale	$212,232	−26.7%	−41.5%	−36.4%
October 14, 2011	October 13, 2011	MLR	Sale	$119,255	−22.8%	−36.4%	−33.6%
October 12, 2011	October 10, 2011	MLR	Sale	$163,320	−21.6%	−33.6%	−33.1%
October 7, 2011	October 6, 2011	MLR	Sale	$108,900	−26.1%	−33.1%	−37.8%
October 5, 2011	October 3, 2011	MLR	Sale	$139,700	−25.5%	−37.8%	−32.0%
September 30, 2011	September 29, 2011	MLR	Sale	$88,630	−20.5%	−32.0%	−34.7%
September 28, 2011	September 26, 2011	MLR	Sale	$144,140	−21.3%	−34.7%	−35.0%
September 23, 2011	September 22, 2011	MLR	Sale	$68,440	−19.1%	−35.0%	−36.3%
September 21, 2011	September 19, 2011	MLR	Sale	$203,383	−17.4%	−36.3%	−34.1%
September 16, 2011	September 15, 2011	MLR	Sale	$154,480	−18.1%	−34.1%	−37.7%
September 14, 2011	September 12, 2011	MLR	Sale	$183,280	−22.0%	−37.7%	−36.2%
September 9, 2011	September 7, 2011	MLR	Sale	$207,510	−16.7%	−36.2%	−38.5%
September 6, 2011	September 1, 2011	MLR	Sale	$213,088	−19.8%	−38.5%	−36.4%
August 31, 2011	August 29, 2011	MLR	Sale	$258,304	−22.3%	−36.4%	−39.1%
August 26, 2011	August 25, 2011	MLR	Sale	$151,600	−22.8%	−39.1%	−39.4%
August 24, 2011	August 22, 2011	MLR	Sale	$183,300	−20.9%	−39.4%	−37.9%
August 19, 2011	August 18, 2011	MLR	Sale	$34,530	−21.1%	−37.9%	−34.9%
August 17, 2011	August 15, 2011	MLR	Sale	$53,570	−18.3%	−34.9%	−33.9%
August 12, 2011	August 11, 2011	MLR	Sale	$33,940	−11.2%	−33.9%	−30.8%
August 10, 2011	August 8, 2011	MLR	Sale	$49,030	−7.5%	−30.8%	−14.3%
August 5, 2011	August 4, 2011	MLR	Sale	$32,540	+14.8%	−14.3%	−9.7%
August 3, 2011	August 1, 2011	MLR	Sale	$49,140	+20.6%	−9.7%	−7.4%
July 29, 2011	July 28, 2011	MLR	Sale	$32,070	+24.0%	−7.4%	−2.9%
July 27, 2011	July 25, 2011	MLR	Sale	$50,830	+31.5%	−2.9%	−8.3%
July 22, 2011	July 21, 2011	MLR	Sale	$35,480	+21.6%	−8.3%	−11.8%
July 20, 2011	July 18, 2011	MLR	Sale	$53,810	+17.7%	−11.8%	−13.2%
July 15, 2011	July 14, 2011	MLR	Sale	$35,870	+11.7%	−13.2%	−10.5%
July 13, 2011	July 11, 2011	MLR	Sale	$53,710	+11.5%	−10.5%	−9.7%
July 8, 2011	July 7, 2011	MLR	Sale	$36,220	+11.4%	−9.7%	−9.4%
July 6, 2011	July 5, 2011	MLR	Sale	$36,730	+12.7%	−9.4%	−11.1%
July 1, 2011	June 30, 2011	MLR	Sale	$37,200	+8.9%	−11.1%	−17.5%
June 29, 2011	June 27, 2011	MLR	Sale	$54,790	+8.6%	−17.5%	−16.7%
June 24, 2011	June 23, 2011	MLR	Sale	$35,860	+7.6%	−16.7%	−16.2%
June 22, 2011	June 20, 2011	MLR	Sale	$53,280	+8.0%	−16.2%	−18.3%
June 17, 2011	June 16, 2011	MLR	Sale	$33,930	+10.7%	−18.3%	−17.2%
June 15, 2011	June 13, 2011	MLR	Sale	$50,600	+19.6%	−17.2%	−17.9%
June 10, 2011	June 9, 2011	MLR	Sale	$32,010	+13.1%	−17.9%	−11.2%
June 8, 2011	June 6, 2011	MLR	Sale	$49,340	+25.4%	−11.2%	−12.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Miller William G traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.