Tobin Thomas J: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer, Director at Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 25, 2010 to March 1, 2017.

What happened after Tobin Thomas J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −21.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 92% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Tobin Thomas J: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	12	−7.2%	−5.9%	92%	4	−3.13	0.052	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	12	−21.0%	−22.1%	92%	4	−1.62	0.20	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	12	−20.8%	−19.4%	92%	4	−1.83	0.16	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Dime Commercial Bancshares, Inc. DCOM	President and CEO	0	12	March 25, 2010	March 1, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
March 1, 2017	February 28, 2017	DCOM	Sale	$245,966	−6.8%	−17.7%	−21.4%
December 4, 2015	December 4, 2015	DCOM	Sale	$98,692	−0.9%	+10.7%	+7.4%
September 21, 2012	September 19, 2012	DCOM	Sale	$56,875	−13.1%	−23.8%	−17.3%
June 22, 2012	June 20, 2012	DCOM	Sale	$56,083	−4.9%	−23.3%	−15.3%
June 21, 2012	June 19, 2012	DCOM	Sale	$55,400	−4.8%	−20.9%	−17.4%
June 11, 2012	June 7, 2012	DCOM	Sale	$53,900	−4.4%	−18.4%	−12.3%
June 8, 2012	June 6, 2012	DCOM	Sale	$46,100	−1.9%	−10.9%	−13.3%
November 10, 2010	November 10, 2010	DCOM	Sale	$41,425	−20.5%	−24.9%	−23.2%
August 2, 2010	July 30, 2010	DCOM	Sale	$91,129	−14.9%	−31.7%	−36.7%
July 30, 2010	July 28, 2010	DCOM	Sale	$58,991	−16.6%	−34.6%	−37.9%
July 29, 2010	July 27, 2010	DCOM	Sale	$111,404	−18.1%	−36.7%	−39.9%
March 25, 2010	March 24, 2010	DCOM	Sale	$58,336	+20.4%	−20.3%	−21.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Tobin Thomas J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.