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Bell Rodney L: insider trades

Chief financial officer, Other at Forward AIR Corp. No open-market purchases and 28 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 10, 2011 to December 16, 2016.

What happened after Bell Rodney L’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −3.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 75% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 28 −3.4% −4.6% 75% 6 −0.83 0.44 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 28 −3.3% −3.2% 75% 6 −1.30 0.25 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 28 −3.5% −4.1% 79% 6 −1.42 0.21 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Forward AIR Corp FWRD CFO, SVP & Treasurer028March 10, 2011December 16, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 16, 2016December 15, 2016 FWRD Sale $1,045,528 −6.3%−0.8%−0.8%
December 9, 2016December 7, 2016 FWRD Sale $211,761 −8.1%−1.5%−1.4%
November 16, 2016November 14, 2016 FWRD Sale $765,546 −5.2%−6.4%−6.2%
August 24, 2016August 23, 2016 FWRD Sale $854,682 +4.8%−2.9%−3.6%
August 10, 2016August 8, 2016 FWRD Sale $56,412 +0.6%−2.3%−4.4%
August 8, 2016August 5, 2016 FWRD Sale $972,195 −3.6%−3.4%−5.0%
August 4, 2016August 2, 2016 FWRD Sale $228,730 −6.8%−5.0%−4.9%
August 2, 2016July 29, 2016 FWRD Sale $1,344,123 −8.2%−4.5%−2.6%
July 29, 2016July 28, 2016 FWRD Sale $48,825 −10.2%−5.1%−5.1%
July 28, 2016July 26, 2016 FWRD Sale $491,198 −10.4%−2.6%−0.2%
June 4, 2015June 3, 2015 FWRD Sale $1,080,000 −12.0%−18.0%−17.3%
February 25, 2015February 23, 2015 FWRD Sale $1,112,400 −2.2%−17.6%−18.6%
February 23, 2015February 20, 2015 FWRD Sale $136,242 −1.7%−16.8%−17.4%
June 9, 2014June 5, 2014 FWRD Sale $660,632 +1.6%+10.8%+11.7%
June 5, 2014June 3, 2014 FWRD Sale $1,008,860 +1.6%+10.7%+11.8%
March 12, 2014March 10, 2014 FWRD Sale $1,730,169 −4.4%+8.0%+7.5%
February 21, 2014February 19, 2014 FWRD Sale $135,450 −3.4%+6.2%+5.6%
May 22, 2013May 20, 2013 FWRD Sale $778,200 −5.1%−3.9%−4.4%
May 20, 2013May 16, 2013 FWRD Sale $759,750 −4.9%−5.3%−2.1%
May 10, 2013May 8, 2013 FWRD Sale $11,550 −3.9%+0.3%−5.0%
May 8, 2013May 7, 2013 FWRD Sale $379,000 −7.8%−2.6%−3.9%
May 6, 2013May 3, 2013 FWRD Sale $476,800 −8.6%−3.9%−2.1%
April 29, 2013April 25, 2013 FWRD Sale $81,972 −6.5%+0.8%+3.0%
March 11, 2013March 8, 2013 FWRD Sale $571,800 −3.1%−2.6%−5.2%
April 27, 2012April 25, 2012 FWRD Sale $180,509 +1.9%−7.7%−9.7%
November 14, 2011October 27, 2011 FWRD Sale $534,512 −4.8%−15.8%−14.0%
October 31, 2011October 27, 2011 FWRD Sale $465,363 +5.7%−12.5%−14.0%
March 10, 2011March 8, 2011 FWRD Sale $540,555 +16.7%+13.4%+8.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bell Rodney L traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.