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Johnson James A /dc/: insider trades

Director at 3 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 19 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 13, 2010 to January 23, 2017.

What happened after Johnson James A /dc/’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −4.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 63% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 19 −1.8% −2.3% 63% 7 −0.53 0.62 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 19 −4.0% −0.9% 63% 7 −0.32 0.76 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 19 −4.3% −1.8% 63% 7 −0.36 0.73 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Target Corporation TGT —09April 13, 2010March 6, 2015
Goldman Sachs GS —08July 23, 2010January 23, 2017
Forestar Group Inc. FOR —02November 15, 2011November 13, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
January 23, 2017January 19, 2017 GS Sale $2,714,284 −8.0%−11.7%−14.5%
March 6, 2015March 5, 2015 TGT Sale $1,058,317 +0.6%+8.4%+9.7%
November 24, 2014November 20, 2014 TGT Sale $572,742 +5.0%+1.3%−1.5%
November 13, 2014November 13, 2014 FOR Sale $23,288 −19.1%−27.3%−27.6%
October 23, 2014October 21, 2014 GS Sale $1,079,280 −7.2%−4.2%−5.1%
July 25, 2014July 24, 2014 GS Sale $1,026,716 +4.8%+10.8%+12.4%
November 25, 2013November 22, 2013 TGT Sale $668,475 −5.0%−0.6%−0.9%
November 19, 2013November 15, 2013 GS Sale $1,644,400 −2.9%−0.9%+1.3%
July 19, 2013July 17, 2013 GS Sale $1,442,250 −7.6%−12.5%−12.1%
July 27, 2012July 27, 2012 GS Sale $592,320 +16.4%+42.8%+39.5%
March 2, 2012February 29, 2012 TGT Sale $521,427 +8.0%+3.1%+5.8%
November 21, 2011November 17, 2011 TGT Sale $523,043 −10.2%+1.0%+6.0%
November 15, 2011November 14, 2011 FOR Sale $10,123 +4.2%−17.1%−18.4%
October 28, 2011October 26, 2011 GS Sale $638,640 −2.3%−0.4%−1.8%
September 19, 2011September 16, 2011 TGT Sale $211,920 −1.8%+3.2%+2.4%
September 14, 2010September 13, 2010 TGT Sale $318,681 −0.4%−10.3%−9.4%
August 24, 2010August 20, 2010 TGT Sale $353,305 −4.8%−12.8%−9.2%
July 23, 2010July 21, 2010 GS Sale $890,280 +0.1%−29.2%−35.2%
April 13, 2010April 9, 2010 TGT Sale $278,650 −3.1%−20.2%−23.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Johnson James A /dc/ traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.