Huffman James A: insider trades

Other at Universal Corp. No open-market purchases and 10 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from June 13, 2012 to June 12, 2019.

What happened after Huffman James A’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −23.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 90% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Huffman James A: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	10	−4.5%	−1.9%	60%	6	−1.32	0.24	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	10	−23.2%	−27.1%	90%	6	−2.64	0.046	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade	10	−23.6%	−27.4%	90%	6	−2.67	0.045	Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Universal Corp UVV	—	0	10	June 13, 2012	June 12, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
June 12, 2019	June 11, 2019	UVV	Sale	$105,572	−10.0%	−32.3%	−35.1%
May 31, 2019	May 30, 2019	UVV	Sale	$106,320	−20.2%	−36.8%	−29.9%
March 1, 2019	March 1, 2019	UVV	Sale	$135,527	+2.2%	−21.9%	−24.8%
November 19, 2018	November 15, 2018	UVV	Sale	$209,214	−14.7%	−38.7%	−37.1%
August 22, 2017	August 21, 2017	UVV	Sale	$181,276	−13.9%	−8.8%	−12.4%
February 13, 2017	February 10, 2017	UVV	Sale	$507,340	−1.3%	−44.5%	−47.7%
November 20, 2015	November 18, 2015	UVV	Sale	$724,808	+2.9%	−9.3%	−6.2%
November 25, 2013	November 25, 2013	UVV	Sale	$48,554	+10.7%	−34.1%	−34.0%
February 12, 2013	February 8, 2013	UVV	Sale	$53,580	+1.3%	−18.3%	−19.0%
June 13, 2012	June 13, 2012	UVV	Sale	$36,107	−2.5%	+12.3%	+10.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Huffman James A traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.