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Sokoloff Jonathan D: insider trades

Director at Shake Shack Inc. No open-market purchases and 45 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 17, 2015 to July 18, 2019.

What happened after Sokoloff Jonathan D’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −13.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 89% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 45 −0.9% −5.7% 71% 5 0.19 0.86 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 45 −13.9% −19.0% 89% 5 −0.27 0.80 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 45 −14.5% −20.1% 89% 5 −0.14 0.89 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Shake Shack Inc. SHAK —045August 17, 2015July 18, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
July 18, 2019July 17, 2019 SHAK Sale $7,426,504 +22.6%−44.6%−42.4%
July 16, 2019July 12, 2019 SHAK Sale $15,928,238 +21.6%−42.4%−42.3%
June 3, 2019May 30, 2019 SHAK Sale $1,272,869 +55.3%−22.4%−18.7%
May 17, 2019May 15, 2019 SHAK Sale $10,889,767 +58.4%−18.9%−22.6%
May 16, 2019May 14, 2019 SHAK Sale $6,907,224 +60.9%−19.0%−22.0%
May 13, 2019May 9, 2019 SHAK Sale $13,843,801 +48.9%−22.0%−12.5%
December 6, 2018December 3, 2018 SHAK Sale $3,343,769 +3.9%−1.3%+2.7%
September 12, 2018September 10, 2018 SHAK Sale $32,091,000 −10.6%+71.1%+62.6%
September 10, 2018September 7, 2018 SHAK Sale $2,339,208 −12.4%+64.9%+61.8%
September 6, 2018September 4, 2018 SHAK Sale $14,840,502 −9.3%+61.8%+71.5%
May 11, 2018May 9, 2018 SHAK Sale $36,900,434 −5.8%−1.6%−5.4%
December 1, 2017November 29, 2017 SHAK Sale $21,080,512 −4.2%+16.2%+25.5%
December 8, 2016December 6, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,514,000 −24.5%+2.2%−3.8%
December 5, 2016December 1, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,386,235 −19.4%−3.8%−10.1%
November 16, 2016November 14, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,687,147 −5.7%−17.6%−21.9%
November 14, 2016November 10, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,764,527 −11.2%−20.7%−17.2%
September 8, 2016September 6, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,412,441 +2.4%−29.6%−29.1%
September 6, 2016September 1, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,545,500 −4.8%−31.6%−29.3%
August 9, 2016August 5, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,989,753 −19.2%−36.1%−36.0%
August 5, 2016August 3, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,910,706 −19.4%−36.9%−33.1%
August 3, 2016August 1, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,911,599 −13.8%−35.8%−32.3%
July 8, 2016July 6, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,429,164 −13.3%−23.2%−22.6%
July 6, 2016July 1, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,635,038 −8.0%−21.1%−23.5%
June 17, 2016June 15, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,552,574 −8.9%−17.4%−11.6%
June 13, 2016June 9, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,337,545 −4.0%−11.3%−13.3%
June 9, 2016June 7, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,729,543 −3.8%−6.9%−16.0%
June 7, 2016June 3, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,666,186 −5.4%−12.3%−16.0%
June 3, 2016June 1, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,783,532 −9.5%−15.8%−18.8%
June 1, 2016May 27, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,770,752 −11.6%−19.7%−20.1%
May 26, 2016May 24, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,324,500 −11.2%−20.1%−10.6%
May 23, 2016May 20, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,077,523 −3.9%−10.6%−10.7%
May 20, 2016May 18, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,068,488 −4.5%−13.0%−9.0%
May 17, 2016May 13, 2016 SHAK Sale $5,198,684 −4.1%−9.0%−25.5%
May 13, 2016May 11, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,574,781 −1.3%−17.4%−11.5%
May 11, 2016May 9, 2016 SHAK Sale $2,411,560 +5.5%−12.7%−13.6%
May 4, 2016May 2, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,256,835 +7.0%−13.9%−20.1%
March 21, 2016March 17, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,701,824 +6.1%−22.1%−24.2%
March 16, 2016March 15, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,381,804 +4.7%−24.2%−30.2%
March 15, 2016March 11, 2016 SHAK Sale $1,735,718 +1.5%−27.0%−29.7%
March 11, 2016March 9, 2016 SHAK Sale $3,555,798 −8.5%−32.4%−34.7%
December 16, 2015December 14, 2015 SHAK Sale $2,022,066 −13.5%−13.4%−19.1%
December 14, 2015December 10, 2015 SHAK Sale $4,242,725 −17.9%−20.6%−23.7%
December 9, 2015December 7, 2015 SHAK Sale $4,353,500 −16.9%−23.7%−27.3%
December 4, 2015December 2, 2015 SHAK Sale $6,702,185 −13.5%−27.3%−28.1%
August 17, 2015August 13, 2015 SHAK Sale $71,590,538 −20.5%−41.7%−37.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Sokoloff Jonathan D traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.