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Nakasone Robert: insider trades

Director at Hormel Foods. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from January 6, 2017 to October 7, 2019.

What happened after Nakasone Robert’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +4.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 21% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 −3.9% −2.5% 71% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 +4.4% +3.6% 21% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 +4.3% +4.6% 21% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Hormel Foods HRL —014January 6, 2017October 7, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 7, 2019October 4, 2019 HRL Sale $146,290 −9.0%−3.5%−2.2%
September 20, 2019September 18, 2019 HRL Sale $171,390 −2.0%+3.8%+3.8%
September 18, 2019September 17, 2019 HRL Sale $170,406 −2.7%+3.3%+2.1%
June 6, 2019June 4, 2019 HRL Sale $598,195 −2.3%+2.1%+7.0%
June 4, 2019June 3, 2019 HRL Sale $718,000 −1.2%+5.9%+8.6%
November 28, 2018November 26, 2018 HRL Sale $411,854 −5.8%−13.5%−20.9%
July 12, 2018July 11, 2018 HRL Sale $225,000 +7.8%+2.5%+1.3%
July 9, 2018July 6, 2018 HRL Sale $373,000 +5.5%+3.2%+3.0%
May 31, 2018May 30, 2018 HRL Sale $219,420 +1.7%+10.4%+5.4%
April 11, 2018April 9, 2018 HRL Sale $515,716 +2.1%+9.0%+8.1%
December 5, 2017December 4, 2017 HRL Sale $119,400 −15.0%+20.0%+17.5%
December 4, 2017December 1, 2017 HRL Sale $109,740 −13.9%+19.2%+18.9%
November 30, 2017November 28, 2017 HRL Sale $550,400 −12.3%+18.9%+26.1%
January 6, 2017January 4, 2017 HRL Sale $666,712 −7.2%−19.2%−18.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Nakasone Robert traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.