Montoya Jorge P: insider trades

Director at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 5 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 24, 2014 to December 5, 2017.

What happened after Montoya Jorge P’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −12.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 60% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Montoya Jorge P: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	5	−7.7%	−7.9%	100%	3	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	5	−12.1%	−10.1%	60%	3	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	5	−13.3%	−7.2%	60%	3	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
GAP Inc GAP	—	0	3	April 24, 2014	June 18, 2015
Kroger KR	—	0	2	March 10, 2015	December 5, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
December 5, 2017	December 4, 2017	KR	Sale	$269,800	−14.9%	+10.6%	+4.4%
June 18, 2015	June 17, 2015	GAP	Sale	$286,875	−11.4%	−45.7%	−49.2%
March 10, 2015	March 9, 2015	KR	Sale	$521,500	−7.9%	+2.5%	+2.5%
May 14, 2014	May 13, 2014	GAP	Sale	$568,150	−0.9%	−18.0%	−17.2%
April 24, 2014	April 23, 2014	GAP	Sale	$586,500	−3.2%	−10.1%	−7.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Montoya Jorge P traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.