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Ferriola John J: insider trades

Chief executive, Officer at Nucor. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 24, 2010 to October 29, 2019.

What happened after Ferriola John J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −11.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 87% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 −5.5% −5.4% 67% 7 −2.16 0.074 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 −11.3% −10.0% 87% 7 −1.63 0.15 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 −12.2% −8.7% 93% 7 −1.75 0.13 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Nucor NUE Chairman and CEO015August 24, 2010October 29, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 29, 2019October 28, 2019 NUE Sale $172,962 −18.3%−19.0%−22.2%
July 24, 2019July 23, 2019 NUE Sale $1,081,909 −5.4%−30.0%−33.6%
April 30, 2019April 29, 2019 NUE Sale $3,656,428 −4.3%−25.3%−25.5%
February 4, 2019January 31, 2019 NUE Sale $5,293,842 −13.7%−41.1%−41.6%
July 25, 2018July 24, 2018 NUE Sale $996,928 −11.2%−23.7%−23.4%
February 14, 2018February 13, 2018 NUE Sale $917,714 +0.9%−10.0%−9.4%
October 24, 2017October 23, 2017 NUE Sale $913,970 +5.8%−7.5%−7.8%
July 25, 2017July 24, 2017 NUE Sale $899,010 −0.6%+2.5%−1.3%
April 26, 2017April 25, 2017 NUE Sale $753,487 −8.2%−10.5%−6.2%
July 28, 2016July 27, 2016 NUE Sale $656,366 −10.9%−5.5%−3.8%
February 16, 2016February 12, 2016 NUE Sale $478,475 +8.4%+37.1%+36.3%
February 2, 2012February 1, 2012 NUE Sale $597,889 −18.3%−7.6%−8.7%
August 1, 2011July 29, 2011 NUE Sale $325,368 +1.7%−3.5%−6.6%
December 22, 2010December 21, 2010 NUE Sale $686,564 +0.3%−8.5%−8.6%
August 24, 2010August 23, 2010 NUE Sale $760,580 −9.2%−17.7%−21.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Ferriola John J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.