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Dubinsky John P: insider trades

Director at Stifel Financial Corp. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 6, 2010 to June 4, 2020.

What happened after Dubinsky John P’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +2.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 69% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 +0.2% +2.5% 39% 7 0.57 0.59 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 +2.6% −14.4% 69% 7 −0.39 0.71 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 +5.1% −14.8% 69% 7 −0.21 0.84 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Stifel Financial Corp SF —013December 6, 2010June 4, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 4, 2020June 3, 2020 SF Sale $123,720 −12.4%+48.1%+64.9%
May 26, 2020May 21, 2020 SF Sale $328,880 −10.3%+64.7%+86.6%
May 11, 2020May 8, 2020 SF Sale $569,126 +10.4%+89.2%+85.3%
September 11, 2019September 10, 2019 SF Sale $122,098 0.0%−22.3%−26.1%
September 5, 2019September 5, 2019 SF Sale $82,065 +7.4%−19.8%−21.2%
June 21, 2019June 19, 2019 SF Sale $114,500 +2.0%−21.6%−21.6%
November 23, 2016November 22, 2016 SF Sale $251,000 −0.6%−14.4%−15.5%
December 14, 2015December 11, 2015 SF Sale $11,256 −30.5%+7.1%+7.1%
March 13, 2015March 12, 2015 SF Sale $83,835 +4.6%−45.2%−43.1%
December 5, 2014December 3, 2014 SF Sale $99,900 +8.6%−16.9%−12.1%
November 25, 2013November 21, 2013 SF Sale $180,600 +2.4%−10.2%−14.8%
August 14, 2013August 13, 2013 SF Sale $120,000 +4.0%−1.5%−1.1%
December 6, 2010December 3, 2010 SF Sale $197,067 +16.9%−22.8%−22.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Dubinsky John P traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.