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Chang Diane: insider trades

Officer at Abercrombie & Fitch Co. No open-market purchases and 11 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 17, 2010 to March 22, 2016.

What happened after Chang Diane’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −33.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 82% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 11 −11.2% −12.1% 64% 6 −1.11 0.32 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 11 −33.6% −41.5% 82% 6 −3.08 0.028 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 11 −33.7% −42.1% 82% 6 −2.98 0.031 Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF EVP of Sourcing011March 17, 2010March 22, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 22, 2016March 18, 2016 ANF Sale $243,580 −40.7%−79.1%−79.5%
March 14, 2016March 10, 2016 ANF Sale $13,000 −43.3%−81.0%−82.5%
September 22, 2015September 21, 2015 ANF Sale $39,222 +19.9%−34.7%−31.0%
June 25, 2014June 23, 2014 ANF Sale $86,060 −12.1%−52.0%−55.0%
June 3, 2014June 2, 2014 ANF Sale $277,079 +3.6%−50.0%−54.9%
June 4, 2013May 31, 2013 ANF Sale $429,063 −31.7%−41.5%−42.1%
May 27, 2011May 26, 2011 ANF Sale $5,926,215 −6.4%−54.3%−52.9%
March 24, 2011March 22, 2011 ANF Sale $599,943 +17.0%−18.8%−14.2%
November 22, 2010November 19, 2010 ANF Sale $297,022 +5.3%−7.2%−2.2%
April 16, 2010April 15, 2010 ANF Sale $400,000 −18.4%+38.8%+29.5%
March 17, 2010March 16, 2010 ANF Sale $118,800 −16.6%+9.9%+14.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Chang Diane traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.