Kastner Jeffrey D: insider trades

Chief financial officer at Flanigans Enterprises Inc. 1 open-market purchase and 8 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from January 22, 2015 to September 9, 2016.

Would copying Kastner Jeffrey D’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. Only 1 purchase has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −38.1% against the S&P 500 (median −38.1%), and 0% beat it. After their sales, the shares moved −33.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Kastner Jeffrey D: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	1	−23.1%	−23.1%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	1	−26.9%	−26.9%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	1	−38.1%	−38.1%	0%	1	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	8	−13.3%	−16.3%	88%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	8	−33.4%	−39.5%	100%	2	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	7	−31.9%	−39.0%	100%	2	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Flanigans Enterprises Inc BDL	CFO & Secretary	1	8	January 22, 2015	September 9, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
September 9, 2016	August 25, 2016	BDL	Sale	$12,691	−2.9%	−9.3%	−7.2%
June 1, 2015	May 18, 2015	BDL	Sale	$61,934	+3.7%	−25.4%	−28.0%
April 20, 2015	April 1, 2015	BDL	Sale	$85,883	−18.1%	−41.4%	−43.1%
March 30, 2015	March 20, 2015	BDL	Sale	$151,848	−21.1%	−41.9%	−39.0%
March 18, 2015	March 5, 2015	BDL	Sale	$49,206	−14.5%	−41.0%	−42.4%
March 3, 2015	February 24, 2015	BDL	Sale	$47,086	−19.8%	−42.2%	−45.3%
January 27, 2015	August 26, 2002	BDL	Sale	$96,708	−23.1%	−38.1%	not yet
January 27, 2015	June 17, 1999	BDL	Purchase	$19,395	−23.1%	−38.1%	not yet
January 22, 2015	January 8, 2015	BDL	Sale	$236,777	−10.9%	−28.1%	−18.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Kastner Jeffrey D traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.