Rumbough Roy A: insider trades

Officer, Other at Lennox International. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 17, 2010 to February 10, 2017.

What happened after Rumbough Roy A’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +6.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 29% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Rumbough Roy A: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	14	+2.2%	+1.6%	36%	8	0.85	0.42	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	14	+6.2%	+4.4%	29%	8	0.94	0.38	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	14	+7.0%	+6.3%	29%	8	1.01	0.34	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Lennox International LII	VP, Controller - LII	0	14	February 17, 2010	February 10, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 10, 2017	February 9, 2017	LII	Sale	$115,283	+0.8%	+9.0%	+6.5%
July 21, 2016	July 20, 2016	LII	Sale	$213,234	−0.4%	+1.7%	+6.1%
February 16, 2016	February 12, 2016	LII	Sale	$110,575	+4.0%	+6.6%	+9.0%
February 5, 2015	February 4, 2015	LII	Sale	$433,787	+4.2%	+22.4%	+22.6%
April 24, 2014	April 23, 2014	LII	Sale	$255,694	+0.5%	+14.0%	+13.6%
February 10, 2014	February 7, 2014	LII	Sale	$262,048	−8.0%	+2.2%	+1.6%
October 24, 2013	October 23, 2013	LII	Sale	$231,688	+8.1%	+0.4%	+1.0%
April 26, 2013	April 24, 2013	LII	Sale	$216,055	+8.8%	+14.6%	+16.6%
November 29, 2012	November 28, 2012	LII	Sale	$128,450	+7.4%	+27.9%	+30.7%
July 30, 2012	July 26, 2012	LII	Sale	$286,484	+11.9%	+42.4%	+41.8%
February 8, 2011	February 7, 2011	LII	Sale	$103,520	−7.4%	−27.2%	−26.8%
June 1, 2010	May 27, 2010	LII	Sale	$102,157	−1.0%	−20.1%	−19.0%
February 23, 2010	February 19, 2010	LII	Sale	$88,755	+2.3%	−4.2%	−4.5%
February 17, 2010	February 12, 2010	LII	Sale	$76,509	−0.9%	−2.9%	−1.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Rumbough Roy A traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.