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Winkel Thomas J: insider trades

Director at Marten Transport LTD. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 24, 2010 to March 21, 2023.

What happened after Winkel Thomas J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +6.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 46% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 +3.8% −0.5% 54% 12 1.21 0.25 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 +6.1% +10.2% 46% 12 0.46 0.66 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 +4.0% +8.2% 46% 12 0.24 0.81 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Marten Transport LTD MRTN —013February 24, 2010March 21, 2023

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 21, 2023March 20, 2023 MRTN Sale $106,898 −8.6%−44.1%−41.9%
March 18, 2022March 17, 2022 MRTN Sale $59,790 +0.8%+15.9%+12.1%
February 3, 2022February 3, 2022 MRTN Sale $88,250 +18.0%+46.9%+39.9%
March 19, 2021March 18, 2021 MRTN Sale $100,620 −5.0%+10.2%+8.2%
March 24, 2020March 23, 2020 MRTN Sale $111,250 −2.3%−37.5%−43.8%
April 29, 2019April 29, 2019 MRTN Sale $127,562 −0.5%+17.6%+18.5%
February 22, 2018February 22, 2018 MRTN Sale $140,938 −0.5%−18.0%−17.7%
March 17, 2017March 17, 2017 MRTN Sale $66,962 +12.4%+46.8%+44.2%
March 15, 2016March 14, 2016 MRTN Sale $58,360 +6.5%+15.0%+13.3%
April 25, 2013April 24, 2013 MRTN Sale $266,451 +18.1%+51.6%+51.2%
February 17, 2012February 16, 2012 MRTN Sale $261,350 −3.3%−14.7%−19.3%
March 9, 2011March 8, 2011 MRTN Sale $269,657 −5.3%−5.9%−8.9%
February 24, 2010February 24, 2010 MRTN Sale $194,199 +18.4%−4.3%−4.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Winkel Thomas J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.