Bauer Paul D: insider trades

Director at Selective Insurance Group Inc. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 18, 2010 to February 20, 2019.

What happened after Bauer Paul D’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +3.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 40% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Bauer Paul D: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	15	+0.2%	−2.1%	60%	10	−0.91	0.39	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	15	+3.2%	+3.3%	40%	10	−0.06	0.95	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	15	+3.1%	+0.9%	40%	10	−0.07	0.94	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Selective Insurance Group Inc SIGI	—	0	15	February 18, 2010	February 20, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 20, 2019	February 19, 2019	SIGI	Sale	$662,840	+6.1%	−21.3%	−21.5%
November 19, 2018	November 16, 2018	SIGI	Sale	$161,000	−2.0%	−16.8%	−11.5%
December 1, 2017	November 29, 2017	SIGI	Sale	$1,763,214	−5.2%	+2.6%	+0.9%
August 4, 2017	August 4, 2017	SIGI	Sale	$51,060	+10.7%	+4.2%	+5.5%
May 22, 2017	May 22, 2017	SIGI	Sale	$100,400	−2.1%	−3.1%	−2.6%
February 7, 2017	February 6, 2017	SIGI	Sale	$175,150	+11.6%	+17.3%	+14.1%
December 5, 2016	December 5, 2016	SIGI	Sale	$81,200	+7.9%	+27.2%	+27.9%
June 1, 2016	June 1, 2016	SIGI	Sale	$55,500	+2.9%	+20.2%	+19.5%
February 18, 2016	February 17, 2016	SIGI	Sale	$169,600	−2.4%	+6.0%	+7.4%
February 10, 2015	February 10, 2015	SIGI	Sale	$165,000	−4.2%	+30.9%	+31.1%
May 28, 2014	May 27, 2014	SIGI	Sale	$144,580	−3.5%	+3.5%	+0.5%
May 8, 2013	May 7, 2013	SIGI	Sale	$94,240	+1.1%	−15.1%	−18.3%
February 6, 2012	February 6, 2012	SIGI	Sale	$111,780	−7.6%	+3.3%	+3.7%
February 18, 2011	February 17, 2011	SIGI	Sale	$110,040	−7.9%	−4.0%	−2.3%
February 18, 2010	February 18, 2010	SIGI	Sale	$98,280	−2.2%	−6.9%	−8.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bauer Paul D traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.