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Anderson Fred D: insider trades

Director at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 26, 2012 to November 12, 2015.

What happened after Anderson Fred D’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +31.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 43% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 +16.0% +14.5% 29% 4 −0.06 0.96 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 +31.5% +22.3% 43% 4 −0.52 0.64 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 +28.5% +14.1% 43% 4 −0.56 0.62 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Yelp Inc YELP —09February 13, 2013August 6, 2014
eBay Inc. EBAY —05October 26, 2012November 12, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
November 12, 2015November 9, 2015 EBAY Sale $101,587 −13.4%−10.3%−9.1%
August 6, 2014August 4, 2014 YELP Sale $15,422,979 −22.4%−74.1%−71.9%
October 31, 2013October 30, 2013 EBAY Sale $2,152,979 +1.8%−15.3%−17.5%
August 21, 2013August 20, 2013 YELP Sale $373,575 +11.6%+34.3%+39.3%
August 19, 2013August 16, 2013 YELP Sale $6,537,021 +20.9%+39.3%+33.9%
August 15, 2013August 13, 2013 YELP Sale $9,789,999 +25.5%+33.9%+28.0%
August 12, 2013August 8, 2013 YELP Sale $28,656,083 +17.3%+28.0%+16.6%
August 8, 2013August 6, 2013 EBAY Sale $867,751 −5.2%−15.7%−15.8%
August 7, 2013August 5, 2013 YELP Sale $52,165,984 +25.1%+16.6%+11.6%
May 21, 2013May 17, 2013 YELP Sale $1,664,947 +75.3%+89.2%+70.8%
May 15, 2013May 13, 2013 YELP Sale $31,146,034 +55.8%+63.8%+61.1%
February 13, 2013February 12, 2013 YELP Sale $7,574,084 +32.9%+295.5%+296.8%
January 28, 2013January 25, 2013 EBAY Sale $2,264,774 −12.3%−26.3%−27.3%
October 26, 2012October 25, 2012 EBAY Sale $730,500 +10.8%−17.9%−17.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Anderson Fred D traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.