Keating Michael M: insider trades

Officer at Suburban Propane Partners LP. No open-market purchases and 14 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 27, 2010 to May 26, 2015.

What happened after Keating Michael M’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −16.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Keating Michael M: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	14	−3.4%	−3.7%	79%	5	−1.70	0.16	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	14	−16.6%	−15.7%	100%	5	−5.10	0.007	Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade	14	−16.6%	−17.4%	100%	5	−4.88	0.008	Some evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Suburban Propane Partners LP SPH	Senior Vice President	0	14	August 27, 2010	May 26, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
May 26, 2015	May 26, 2015	SPH	Sale	$217,400	−3.9%	−14.0%	−16.0%
February 19, 2015	February 19, 2015	SPH	Sale	$242,697	−3.5%	−31.5%	−32.9%
August 20, 2014	August 18, 2014	SPH	Sale	$442,900	+1.2%	−17.1%	−18.7%
February 17, 2012	February 17, 2012	SPH	Sale	$218,750	−2.4%	−9.4%	−8.3%
February 14, 2012	February 14, 2012	SPH	Sale	$211,150	−1.0%	−8.4%	−8.1%
February 9, 2012	February 8, 2012	SPH	Sale	$210,138	+2.5%	−2.0%	−7.9%
February 7, 2012	February 7, 2012	SPH	Sale	$208,150	−0.8%	−7.9%	−4.9%
March 4, 2011	March 4, 2011	SPH	Sale	$289,800	−8.5%	−22.6%	−22.6%
February 22, 2011	February 22, 2011	SPH	Sale	$286,950	−6.9%	−22.9%	−22.8%
February 18, 2011	February 18, 2011	SPH	Sale	$287,750	−6.8%	−22.8%	−22.5%
February 17, 2011	February 17, 2011	SPH	Sale	$285,250	−6.7%	−22.5%	−22.4%
February 8, 2011	February 8, 2011	SPH	Sale	$1,421,250	−6.2%	−27.7%	−24.8%
November 19, 2010	November 19, 2010	SPH	Sale	$734,670	−4.3%	−8.7%	−10.4%
August 27, 2010	August 27, 2010	SPH	Sale	$488,900	+0.3%	−14.3%	−10.0%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Keating Michael M traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.