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Paulsen William F: insider trades

Director at Camden Property Trust. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 16, 2012 to March 24, 2021.

What happened after Paulsen William F’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −3.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 63% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 +2.3% +1.4% 31% 9 1.20 0.26 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 −3.5% −8.2% 63% 9 −0.35 0.74 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 −2.9% −8.3% 63% 9 −0.29 0.78 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Camden Property Trust CPT —016March 16, 2012March 24, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 24, 2021March 23, 2021 CPT Sale $597,135 +14.1%+35.3%+36.1%
March 17, 2021March 15, 2021 CPT Sale $606,430 +14.2%+41.1%+46.3%
May 22, 2019May 21, 2019 CPT Sale $202,234 +0.4%−18.8%−15.8%
February 6, 2019February 5, 2019 CPT Sale $280,821 −5.1%−8.0%−6.3%
December 26, 2018December 21, 2018 CPT Sale $1,013,927 +2.7%−8.5%−15.0%
June 6, 2018June 4, 2018 CPT Sale $198,283 +1.4%+15.1%+15.1%
June 14, 2017June 13, 2017 CPT Sale $194,150 +3.9%−10.6%−10.3%
May 31, 2016May 26, 2016 CPT Sale $124,246 +0.5%−10.4%−11.0%
January 7, 2015January 5, 2015 CPT Sale $216,577 −1.9%+5.6%+5.1%
February 20, 2014February 18, 2014 CPT Sale $26,336 +3.3%+2.4%+4.3%
January 9, 2014January 7, 2014 CPT Sale $146,553 +15.1%+25.6%+24.6%
May 21, 2013May 20, 2013 CPT Sale $84,502 −12.0%−18.1%−16.6%
February 21, 2013February 19, 2013 CPT Sale $108,833 −7.1%−28.5%−25.7%
January 7, 2013January 3, 2013 CPT Sale $91,528 −4.0%−39.8%−39.2%
November 20, 2012November 16, 2012 CPT Sale $2,685,060 +1.3%−37.2%−37.9%
March 16, 2012March 14, 2012 CPT Sale $141,920 +10.1%−0.6%−0.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Paulsen William F traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.