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Grodzki Kevin: insider trades

Officer at Brunswick Corp. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from January 4, 2010 to December 22, 2014.

What happened after Grodzki Kevin’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +7.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 40% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 +3.4% +6.3% 27% 5 2.61 0.060 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 +7.8% +2.1% 40% 5 1.69 0.17 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 +9.9% +3.7% 40% 6 2.08 0.092 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Brunswick Corp BC VP & PRES MERCURY MARINE SALES015January 4, 2010December 22, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 22, 2014December 19, 2014 BC Sale $313,667 +2.1%−1.5%−2.8%
December 10, 2014December 8, 2014 BC Sale $881,901 +5.0%+2.1%+3.7%
November 13, 2014November 12, 2014 BC Sale $379,162 +12.7%+9.9%+6.8%
November 14, 2013November 13, 2013 BC Sale $2,937,334 −6.7%−9.4%−7.3%
September 19, 2013September 18, 2013 BC Sale $205,000 +10.3%−5.7%−7.8%
September 17, 2013September 16, 2013 BC Sale $181,440 +9.0%−7.8%−9.4%
August 2, 2013August 1, 2013 BC Sale $347,854 +11.3%−11.1%−12.4%
January 3, 2013December 31, 2012 BC Sale $191,469 −2.7%+17.8%+26.4%
December 21, 2012December 20, 2012 BC Sale $121,492 +13.2%+35.5%+33.6%
April 30, 2012April 26, 2012 BC Sale $230,850 −14.2%+7.3%+2.5%
February 7, 2011February 4, 2011 BC Sale $257,875 +3.7%+1.2%+7.8%
May 11, 2010May 10, 2010 BC Sale $100,000 −25.8%−17.6%−8.2%
March 11, 2010March 10, 2010 BC Sale $30,000 +6.3%+33.6%+36.1%
March 10, 2010March 9, 2010 BC Sale $28,000 +9.7%+36.0%+47.4%
January 4, 2010December 31, 2009 BC Sale $13,000 +16.5%+26.0%+32.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Grodzki Kevin traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.