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Lawson Joel S III: insider trades

Director at Urban Outfitters Inc. No open-market purchases and 19 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from January 13, 2010 to April 8, 2019.

What happened after Lawson Joel S III’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −35.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 19 −5.5% −2.9% 74% 8 −2.37 0.050 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 19 −35.5% −31.4% 100% 8 −9.69 <0.001 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 19 −35.5% −31.2% 100% 8 −10.32 <0.001 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Urban Outfitters Inc URBN —019January 13, 2010April 8, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
April 8, 2019April 4, 2019 URBN Sale $323,400 −34.8%−45.2%−50.0%
April 1, 2019March 28, 2019 URBN Sale $293,100 −30.3%−44.9%−42.4%
July 10, 2018July 9, 2018 URBN Sale $456,600 −16.4%−57.9%−58.7%
June 7, 2018June 6, 2018 URBN Sale $460,000 −10.2%−56.4%−55.9%
May 31, 2018May 29, 2018 URBN Sale $418,200 −0.6%−49.1%−51.4%
April 16, 2018April 13, 2018 URBN Sale $773,800 +12.4%−31.4%−30.5%
March 28, 2018March 26, 2018 URBN Sale $738,000 +21.1%−28.1%−31.2%
March 13, 2018March 12, 2018 URBN Sale $714,200 +31.4%−23.5%−19.2%
March 18, 2016March 16, 2016 URBN Sale $1,270,200 −23.7%−48.9%−44.5%
March 17, 2015March 13, 2015 URBN Sale $1,333,200 −22.9%−26.7%−27.6%
September 23, 2014September 19, 2014 URBN Sale $765,200 −13.7%−21.2%−21.1%
June 7, 2013June 5, 2013 URBN Sale $420,200 −1.2%−42.1%−40.8%
April 15, 2013April 11, 2013 URBN Sale $418,500 −1.8%−30.4%−28.0%
April 4, 2013April 2, 2013 URBN Sale $807,000 −2.9%−27.5%−30.5%
March 22, 2013March 20, 2013 URBN Sale $809,400 −3.5%−31.7%−33.5%
November 27, 2012November 26, 2012 URBN Sale $168,872 −1.3%−28.5%−29.4%
July 2, 2010June 30, 2010 URBN Sale $707,800 −17.7%−46.3%−46.8%
March 23, 2010March 22, 2010 URBN Sale $725,482 +2.7%−29.4%−26.2%
January 13, 2010January 11, 2010 URBN Sale $1,015,314 +9.4%−6.4%−6.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Lawson Joel S III traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.