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Netter Christopher: insider trades

Officer at Saul Centers, Inc. No open-market purchases and 18 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 12, 2010 to June 19, 2019.

What happened after Netter Christopher’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −15.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 94% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 18 −1.7% −2.3% 67% 8 −1.55 0.17 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 18 −15.1% −13.1% 94% 8 −3.76 0.007 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 18 −15.7% −13.6% 94% 8 −3.69 0.008 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Saul Centers, Inc. BFS Sr. Vice Pres.-Retail Leasing018April 12, 2010June 19, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 19, 2019June 17, 2019 BFS Sale $285,000 −6.0%−47.3%−45.2%
August 21, 2018August 20, 2018 BFS Sale $444,750 −3.5%−13.0%−13.5%
October 10, 2017October 5, 2017 BFS Sale $253,255 −16.9%−25.7%−31.2%
October 5, 2017October 4, 2017 BFS Sale $63,470 −14.9%−28.9%−32.1%
September 26, 2016September 22, 2016 BFS Sale $504,450 −6.8%−21.9%−24.1%
September 8, 2016September 7, 2016 BFS Sale $379,609 −0.4%−18.4%−21.8%
June 9, 2016June 7, 2016 BFS Sale $430,121 +8.1%−13.8%−13.7%
June 6, 2016June 3, 2016 BFS Sale $265,118 +15.1%−13.7%−14.9%
May 17, 2016May 13, 2016 BFS Sale $427,100 +13.3%−10.7%−14.3%
May 11, 2016May 10, 2016 BFS Sale $564,209 +9.5%−13.3%−10.2%
January 8, 2015January 7, 2015 BFS Sale $116,478 −9.1%−6.6%−8.7%
January 5, 2015December 31, 2014 BFS Sale $60,138 −8.1%−9.5%−8.7%
December 29, 2014December 23, 2014 BFS Sale $143,750 −0.9%−8.0%−8.1%
December 18, 2014December 17, 2014 BFS Sale $366,000 +1.9%−5.3%−5.7%
December 16, 2014December 12, 2014 BFS Sale $196,889 −2.4%−5.7%−6.7%
March 17, 2014March 14, 2014 BFS Sale $698,400 −2.2%+10.2%+8.5%
January 6, 2011January 4, 2011 BFS Sale $355,088 −12.5%−28.2%−26.7%
April 12, 2010April 8, 2010 BFS Sale $165,680 +5.7%−11.9%−4.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Netter Christopher traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.