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King David D: insider trades

Officer at UMB Financial Corp. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 26, 2010 to June 11, 2014.

What happened after King David D’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −1.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 47% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 −0.5% −3.4% 60% 5 −0.63 0.56 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 −1.2% +1.1% 47% 5 −0.65 0.55 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 −1.3% +0.6% 47% 5 −0.62 0.57 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
UMB Financial Corp UMBF EVP of Subsidiary015August 26, 2010June 11, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 11, 2014June 10, 2014 UMBF Sale $60,871 −5.8%−13.9%−14.4%
November 25, 2013November 22, 2013 UMBF Sale $391,098 −5.9%−26.3%−25.3%
July 29, 2013July 29, 2013 UMBF Sale $119,366 −3.4%−20.7%−23.3%
May 10, 2013May 9, 2013 UMBF Sale $101,200 +15.7%−3.8%−3.4%
May 1, 2013April 30, 2013 UMBF Sale $54,103 +16.5%0.0%−1.9%
March 5, 2013March 4, 2013 UMBF Sale $45,530 +10.7%+17.1%+16.7%
August 29, 2012August 29, 2012 UMBF Sale $37,022 −14.0%+2.5%+3.6%
July 30, 2012July 30, 2012 UMBF Sale $48,731 −10.1%+2.2%+0.6%
May 15, 2012May 15, 2012 UMBF Sale $47,450 −2.2%−13.7%−14.5%
February 8, 2012February 7, 2012 UMBF Sale $41,225 +17.1%−0.8%−4.4%
November 4, 2011November 4, 2011 UMBF Sale $36,730 +2.6%+5.0%+5.3%
August 22, 2011August 22, 2011 UMBF Sale $16,981 −8.9%+11.2%+16.1%
August 19, 2011August 18, 2011 UMBF Sale $16,923 −6.0%+16.1%+16.2%
August 2, 2011August 1, 2011 UMBF Sale $41,312 −13.1%+5.7%+8.8%
August 26, 2010August 24, 2010 UMBF Sale $33,000 +0.3%+1.1%+0.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why King David D traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.