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Otoole Timothy S: insider trades

Officer at Chemed Corp. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 25, 2010 to August 4, 2015.

What happened after Otoole Timothy S’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +4.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 47% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 +0.7% +2.2% 33% 6 0.31 0.77 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 +4.6% +5.7% 47% 6 0.76 0.48 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 +3.6% +5.5% 47% 6 0.56 0.60 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Chemed Corp CHE executive vice president015March 25, 2010August 4, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 4, 2015August 3, 2015 CHE Sale $1,487,900 +3.1%−9.5%−6.9%
March 3, 2015March 2, 2015 CHE Sale $1,178,200 +5.3%+15.4%+15.0%
November 17, 2014November 14, 2014 CHE Sale $534,050 +2.6%+38.7%+37.4%
May 15, 2014May 15, 2014 CHE Sale $788,580 +11.2%+23.9%+24.4%
March 12, 2014March 11, 2014 CHE Sale $519,600 +0.2%+22.7%+22.5%
November 19, 2013November 19, 2013 CHE Sale $762,500 +6.6%+25.1%+25.3%
April 24, 2013April 23, 2013 CHE Sale $941,280 −16.7%−10.2%−10.2%
September 25, 2012September 24, 2012 CHE Sale $429,060 −0.2%−14.2%−20.7%
March 1, 2012February 29, 2012 CHE Sale $230,140 −2.7%+13.6%+12.0%
May 12, 2011May 11, 2011 CHE Sale $567,280 −8.8%−18.0%−18.8%
March 9, 2011March 8, 2011 CHE Sale $200,160 +1.5%−12.8%−13.2%
January 13, 2011January 12, 2011 CHE Sale $379,860 +4.1%−15.8%−18.9%
November 12, 2010November 11, 2010 CHE Sale $249,280 −7.5%−12.1%−11.7%
May 6, 2010May 5, 2010 CHE Sale $270,450 +2.2%+17.1%+12.4%
March 25, 2010March 25, 2010 CHE Sale $193,161 +10.0%+5.7%+5.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Otoole Timothy S traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.