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Wilkins James R Jr: insider trades

Director at Eagle Financial Services Inc. 56 open-market purchases and no sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 12, 2010 to August 6, 2020.

Would copying Wilkins James R Jr’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on May 13, 2010 into $43,370 by November 2, 2026, +9.3% a year. The copy held shares only 61% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $63,948, +11.9% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $87,248, +14.1% a year). Beta against the index was 0.06. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −3.8% against the S&P 500 (median −2.6%), and 46% beat it: within what luck alone would produce (p = 0.35 over 9 years). Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was −3.2%.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

$0$25.0k$50.0k$75.0k 201020122014201620182020202220242026 $87.2k$63.9k$43.4k
Copying Wilkins James R JrS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Wilkins James R Jr’s open-market purchases from May 13, 2010, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.
Return a year, copying
+9.3%
S&P 500, same days invested
+11.9% (held throughout +14.1%)
Time in shares
61%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500)
0.49 (0.77)
Biggest drop (S&P 500)
−30% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta)
0.06
Purchases copied
56

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 56 −2.6% −1.6% 41% 9 −1.13 0.29 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report 56 −3.0% −2.7% 34% 9 −1.01 0.34 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the report 56 −3.8% −2.6% 46% 9 −0.99 0.35 No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 56 −3.2% −4.4% 45% 9 −0.84 0.43 No reliable evidence
Sales, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Eagle Financial Services Inc EFSI —560May 12, 2010August 6, 2020

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 6, 2020August 4, 2020 EFSI Purchase $25,400 −2.3%+3.9%+2.6%
May 20, 2020May 19, 2020 EFSI Purchase $26,500 −14.8%−9.3%−12.2%
May 20, 2020May 18, 2020 EFSI Purchase $17,311 −14.8%−9.3%−8.9%
March 18, 2020March 17, 2020 EFSI Purchase $28,000 −33.0%−42.9%−39.3%
March 13, 2020March 11, 2020 EFSI Purchase $85,416 −37.2%−53.5%−35.5%
August 16, 2019August 15, 2019 EFSI Purchase $29,771 −3.7%−30.3%−33.6%
August 14, 2019August 12, 2019 EFSI Purchase $29,900 −5.0%−33.6%−27.3%
September 20, 2017September 18, 2017 EFSI Purchase $58,350 +2.9%+11.8%+13.1%
March 13, 2017March 13, 2017 EFSI Purchase $11,140 +5.9%−3.6%−0.9%
June 9, 2016June 8, 2016 EFSI Purchase $17,618 +0.5%+18.8%+19.4%
June 6, 2016June 2, 2016 EFSI Purchase $16,015 +0.8%+19.9%+18.6%
March 4, 2016March 4, 2016 EFSI Purchase $46,000 −6.2%+1.8%+1.3%
March 3, 2016March 2, 2016 EFSI Purchase $34,500 −4.6%+1.3%+0.6%
February 25, 2016February 25, 2016 EFSI Purchase $24,296 −3.8%+1.7%+1.6%
November 25, 2014November 25, 2014 EFSI Purchase $11,960 +2.6%+1.6%+1.4%
November 24, 2014November 24, 2014 EFSI Purchase $22,402 +2.2%+1.4%+1.3%
November 20, 2014November 20, 2014 EFSI Purchase $95,806 +1.2%+1.4%−0.3%
June 2, 2014June 2, 2014 EFSI Purchase $34,650 −1.8%−9.1%−8.1%
May 23, 2014May 23, 2014 EFSI Purchase $101,640 −1.6%−9.1%−7.7%
March 12, 2014March 12, 2014 EFSI Purchase $16,763 −1.5%−9.4%−8.9%
March 5, 2014March 5, 2014 EFSI Purchase $11,450 −1.6%−5.2%−7.0%
February 24, 2014February 24, 2014 EFSI Purchase $46,467 −1.9%−9.2%−8.8%
December 5, 2013December 5, 2013 EFSI Purchase $109,294 −4.6%−8.9%−12.4%
November 21, 2013November 21, 2013 EFSI Purchase $45,214 −0.4%−10.9%−11.4%
November 7, 2013November 6, 2013 EFSI Purchase $13,260 −1.0%−9.4%−9.0%
October 24, 2013October 24, 2013 EFSI Purchase $133,425 +0.3%−0.2%−6.0%
August 27, 2013August 27, 2013 EFSI Purchase $37,840 −15.2%−21.6%−20.8%
August 21, 2013August 20, 2013 EFSI Purchase $42,810 −13.8%−18.3%−19.3%
August 12, 2013August 12, 2013 EFSI Purchase $38,664 −12.4%−16.2%−15.8%
May 23, 2013May 22, 2013 EFSI Purchase $17,885 +1.5%−15.8%−15.6%
May 17, 2013May 17, 2013 EFSI Purchase $32,620 +5.3%−10.3%−10.6%
April 29, 2013April 29, 2013 EFSI Purchase $23,100 +2.3%−17.2%−17.8%
April 23, 2013April 23, 2013 EFSI Purchase $45,507 −0.4%−19.8%−19.6%
March 19, 2013March 15, 2013 EFSI Purchase $36,144 −5.3%−19.1%−16.7%
November 30, 2012November 30, 2012 EFSI Purchase $10,625 −2.1%−23.3%−22.0%
August 20, 2012August 20, 2012 EFSI Purchase $10,399 +9.7%+0.9%+0.5%
May 31, 2012May 30, 2012 EFSI Purchase $25,491 −17.2%−19.3%−18.1%
May 9, 2012May 7, 2012 EFSI Purchase $73,815 −9.7%−14.9%−7.7%
April 26, 2012April 25, 2012 EFSI Purchase $159,600 +5.5%−1.7%−2.8%
February 16, 2012February 14, 2012 EFSI Purchase $13,490 +24.4%+13.6%+11.1%
January 31, 2012January 30, 2012 EFSI Purchase $16,515 +13.3%+14.4%+10.4%
December 5, 2011December 5, 2011 EFSI Purchase $17,500 +4.4%+13.5%+14.7%
November 28, 2011November 28, 2011 EFSI Purchase $24,640 −6.8%+4.1%+5.1%
November 8, 2011November 7, 2011 EFSI Purchase $10,170 +0.9%+16.5%+19.5%
November 4, 2011November 4, 2011 EFSI Purchase $11,865 +1.8%+19.5%+17.6%
June 8, 2011June 7, 2011 EFSI Purchase $37,710 +4.4%+20.7%+29.4%
May 4, 2011May 2, 2011 EFSI Purchase $57,750 +4.5%+24.5%+28.8%
March 2, 2011March 2, 2011 EFSI Purchase $15,418 +2.9%+12.3%+10.1%
February 9, 2011February 8, 2011 EFSI Purchase $30,150 +5.1%+15.0%+14.7%
December 22, 2010December 20, 2010 EFSI Purchase $44,996 −2.6%+13.4%+11.0%
December 16, 2010December 16, 2010 EFSI Purchase $19,631 −5.0%+10.7%+13.3%
December 8, 2010December 8, 2010 EFSI Purchase $12,579 −4.6%+6.1%+6.0%
December 1, 2010November 29, 2010 EFSI Purchase $24,837 −5.4%+5.6%+7.4%
November 18, 2010November 17, 2010 EFSI Purchase $16,170 −3.8%+5.9%+5.2%
August 31, 2010August 31, 2010 EFSI Purchase $21,495 −10.8%−8.5%−12.7%
May 12, 2010May 12, 2010 EFSI Purchase $12,835 +6.4%−11.8%−9.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Wilkins James R Jr traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.