Murphy James J: insider trades

Officer at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 27 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 10, 2010 to December 10, 2019.

What happened after Murphy James J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −0.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 56% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Murphy James J: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	27	+0.5%	−1.4%	56%	8	0.48	0.64	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	27	−0.1%	−1.8%	56%	8	0.14	0.89	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	27	−3.4%	−6.5%	63%	8	−0.13	0.90	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Western Digital WDC	President, WD Subsidiary	0	18	November 10, 2010	June 22, 2015
Seagate Technology STX	EVP, Sales & Marketing	0	9	February 1, 2018	December 10, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
December 10, 2019	December 6, 2019	STX	Sale	$440,154	−0.7%	−0.9%	−6.4%
November 25, 2019	November 21, 2019	STX	Sale	$682,569	−13.0%	−13.9%	−18.1%
November 13, 2019	November 11, 2019	STX	Sale	$1,402,064	−15.2%	−18.8%	−18.0%
November 7, 2019	November 5, 2019	STX	Sale	$10,187,584	−13.2%	−19.8%	−21.7%
November 6, 2019	November 4, 2019	STX	Sale	$7,137,068	−13.6%	−18.7%	−20.0%
February 19, 2019	February 14, 2019	STX	Sale	$953,064	−1.4%	+2.1%	−1.3%
December 4, 2018	November 30, 2018	STX	Sale	$580,960	+15.0%	+30.9%	+28.4%
August 31, 2018	August 29, 2018	STX	Sale	$28,809	−5.0%	+11.2%	−7.3%
February 1, 2018	January 31, 2018	STX	Sale	$781,850	+11.7%	−9.2%	−11.3%
June 22, 2015	June 18, 2015	WDC	Sale	$630,863	−10.1%	−43.9%	−47.6%
June 3, 2015	June 2, 2015	WDC	Sale	$604,795	−7.9%	−50.5%	−50.9%
May 7, 2015	May 7, 2015	WDC	Sale	$619,909	−11.7%	−59.8%	−60.0%
March 5, 2015	March 4, 2015	WDC	Sale	$1,346,520	−8.5%	−48.5%	−49.5%
November 26, 2014	November 25, 2014	WDC	Sale	$3,674,605	+0.1%	−41.0%	−41.7%
June 12, 2014	June 10, 2014	WDC	Sale	$632,853	+5.8%	−8.5%	−5.0%
May 29, 2014	May 27, 2014	WDC	Sale	$667,593	+12.3%	+0.6%	−3.4%
March 21, 2014	March 20, 2014	WDC	Sale	$1,096,583	−1.7%	−1.8%	+1.2%
December 20, 2013	December 18, 2013	WDC	Sale	$505,131	+7.1%	+23.2%	+23.0%
December 10, 2013	December 6, 2013	WDC	Sale	$491,685	+5.7%	+24.5%	+18.8%
August 6, 2012	August 2, 2012	WDC	Sale	$2,187,840	−15.0%	+42.0%	+38.2%
June 5, 2012	June 1, 2012	WDC	Sale	$24,233	+27.9%	+85.0%	+83.8%
May 29, 2012	May 25, 2012	WDC	Sale	$513,600	+27.1%	+74.1%	+61.6%
May 23, 2012	May 21, 2012	WDC	Sale	$535,928	+21.8%	+64.4%	+48.2%
February 11, 2011	February 10, 2011	WDC	Sale	$333,916	+4.7%	+9.5%	+6.0%
February 8, 2011	February 7, 2011	WDC	Sale	$409,646	+5.5%	+5.2%	+2.7%
December 7, 2010	December 3, 2010	WDC	Sale	$489,357	−8.0%	−14.0%	−12.9%
November 10, 2010	November 9, 2010	WDC	Sale	$144,720	−5.7%	−26.1%	−26.9%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Murphy James J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.