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Kagan Peter: insider trades

Director at 3 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 14, 2010 to November 13, 2019.

What happened after Kagan Peter’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −28.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 77% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −15.8% −12.4% 77% 8 −0.94 0.38 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −28.7% −47.6% 77% 8 −1.40 0.21 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −28.4% −49.4% 77% 8 −1.36 0.21 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Antero Resources Corp AR —06October 18, 2013June 12, 2019
Targa Resources TRGP —04December 14, 2010March 3, 2015
Antero Midstream Corp AM —03May 23, 2019November 13, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
November 13, 2019November 12, 2019 AM Sale $149,734,649 −22.5%+31.1%+21.6%
September 6, 2019September 5, 2019 AM Sale $116,751,675 −41.3%−12.9%−11.7%
June 12, 2019June 10, 2019 AR Sale $99,301,152 −44.3%−51.4%−50.4%
May 23, 2019May 21, 2019 AM Sale $189,150,000 −43.9%−65.3%−65.6%
November 9, 2018November 8, 2018 AR Sale $206,310,000 −44.2%−100.8%−96.2%
March 2, 2016March 1, 2016 AR Sale $105,407,598 +14.8%−20.3%−14.7%
March 3, 2015February 27, 2015 TRGP Sale $1,061,019 −8.4%−65.8%−64.7%
August 19, 2014August 15, 2014 TRGP Sale $2,357,771 −18.1%−55.9%−53.2%
June 9, 2014June 5, 2014 AR Sale $57,656,342 −10.8%−48.3%−49.9%
May 21, 2014May 19, 2014 AR Sale $744,000,000 −12.5%−47.6%−49.4%
October 18, 2013October 16, 2013 AR Sale $143,250,004 −0.7%−23.0%−19.3%
April 28, 2011April 26, 2011 TRGP Sale $129,499,395 +2.0%+37.4%+32.3%
December 14, 2010December 10, 2010 TRGP Sale $377,694,196 +24.7%+49.7%+51.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Kagan Peter traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.