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Wenger Stefan: insider trades

Chief financial officer at Royal Gold Inc. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 30, 2010 to August 18, 2017.

What happened after Wenger Stefan’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −18.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 58% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 12 −6.0% −9.8% 67% 6 −1.66 0.16 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 12 −18.1% −9.3% 58% 6 −0.83 0.45 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 12 −18.4% −13.3% 67% 6 −0.83 0.45 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Royal Gold Inc RGLD CFO and Treasurer012December 30, 2010August 18, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 18, 2017August 18, 2017 RGLD Sale $182,504 −8.3%−29.7%−28.9%
November 17, 2016November 17, 2016 RGLD Sale $674,654 −7.3%+6.3%+6.8%
February 26, 2016February 26, 2016 RGLD Sale $33,154 +10.0%+19.7%+25.8%
February 25, 2014February 21, 2014 RGLD Sale $995,286 −15.0%−9.1%−10.8%
November 29, 2012November 27, 2012 RGLD Sale $75,547 −31.2%−75.2%−76.7%
October 1, 2012September 27, 2012 RGLD Sale $129,487 −20.9%−69.4%−69.6%
September 17, 2012September 13, 2012 RGLD Sale $438,431 −16.5%−66.1%−62.2%
February 24, 2012February 23, 2012 RGLD Sale $47,321 +0.5%−20.1%−17.5%
November 14, 2011November 9, 2011 RGLD Sale $478,955 −19.7%−9.5%−3.3%
August 23, 2011August 19, 2011 RGLD Sale $348,091 +10.4%+1.9%−15.9%
May 20, 2011May 19, 2011 RGLD Sale $109,246 +36.7%+10.9%+7.9%
December 30, 2010December 28, 2010 RGLD Sale $106,556 −11.3%+22.5%+23.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Wenger Stefan traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.