Bottiglieri James and related entities: insider trades

Director, Other at 2 companies we cover. 15 open-market purchases and no sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 14, 2010 to January 5, 2022. Trades reported separately by several related funds or companies are counted once, under this name.

Would copying Bottiglieri James and related entities’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. Only 15 purchases have 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on May 17, 2010 into $31,194 by November 2, 2026, +7.2% a year. The copy held shares only 63% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $37,296, +8.3% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $88,810, +14.2% a year). Beta against the index was 0.63. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was +0.4% against the S&P 500 (median +0.1%), and 53% beat it. Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was +1.5%.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Copying Bottiglieri James and related entitiesS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Bottiglieri James and related entities’s open-market purchases from May 17, 2010, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.

Return a year, copying: +7.2%
S&P 500, same days invested: +8.3% (held throughout +14.2%)
Time in shares: 63%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500): 0.35 (0.77)
Biggest drop (S&P 500): −57% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta): 0.63
Purchases copied: 15

Trade by trade

Bottiglieri James and related entities: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	15	0.0%	+1.8%	60%	9	−0.38	0.71	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report	15	−0.9%	−1.8%	47%	9	−0.20	0.85	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the report	15	+0.4%	+0.1%	53%	9	0.32	0.76	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	15	+1.5%	+4.3%	53%	9	0.48	0.65	No reliable evidence
Sales, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Compass Diversified Holdings CODI	—	13	0	May 14, 2010	January 5, 2022
Horizon Technology Finance Corp HRZN	—	2	0	May 20, 2011	September 12, 2012

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
January 5, 2022	January 3, 2022	CODI	Purchase	$99,718	−14.4%	−12.5%	−17.7%
January 5, 2021	January 4, 2021	CODI	Purchase	$99,650	+13.6%	+25.1%	+42.6%
January 6, 2020	January 3, 2020	CODI	Purchase	$99,685	−24.6%	−29.9%	−34.0%
November 20, 2018	November 20, 2018	CODI	Purchase	$37,950	+1.2%	+40.8%	+39.8%
November 15, 2017	November 14, 2017	CODI	Purchase	$83,150	−5.2%	−9.1%	−7.4%
May 18, 2017	May 17, 2017	CODI	Purchase	$48,720	+5.1%	−13.2%	−14.2%
January 5, 2017	January 3, 2017	CODI	Purchase	$81,720	−9.6%	−18.6%	−19.2%
January 6, 2015	January 2, 2015	CODI	Purchase	$56,700	+2.5%	+3.6%	+7.4%
November 15, 2012	November 13, 2012	CODI	Purchase	$49,000	+2.1%	+7.4%	+10.9%
September 12, 2012	September 12, 2012	HRZN	Purchase	$16,000	−5.9%	−27.1%	−27.4%
May 17, 2012	May 16, 2012	CODI	Purchase	$32,000	+12.4%	+27.8%	+26.7%
November 14, 2011	November 14, 2011	CODI	Purchase	$38,160	+11.9%	+10.3%	+11.9%
May 20, 2011	May 19, 2011	HRZN	Purchase	$47,370	+15.3%	+13.9%	+15.7%
May 16, 2011	May 12, 2011	CODI	Purchase	$27,621	−6.0%	−12.3%	−17.2%
May 14, 2010	May 13, 2010	CODI	Purchase	$11,175	+1.8%	+0.1%	+4.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bottiglieri James and related entities traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.