Cox Thomas: insider trades

Officer at MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc. No open-market purchases and 21 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 13, 2010 to November 17, 2014.

What happened after Cox Thomas’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −5.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 62% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Cox Thomas: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	21	−0.1%	−2.5%	67%	5	−0.28	0.79	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	21	−5.7%	−7.9%	62%	5	−0.48	0.66	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	21	−5.8%	−8.6%	62%	5	−0.51	0.64	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc MSM	Executive VP, Sales	0	21	April 13, 2010	November 17, 2014

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
November 17, 2014	November 13, 2014	MSM	Sale	$924,153	−6.6%	−25.0%	−24.6%
November 10, 2014	November 6, 2014	MSM	Sale	$3,780,694	−7.3%	−25.3%	−24.5%
August 20, 2014	August 18, 2014	MSM	Sale	$219,542	−11.9%	−20.3%	−23.1%
May 2, 2014	May 1, 2014	MSM	Sale	$183,000	−7.8%	−28.9%	−31.2%
April 23, 2014	April 22, 2014	MSM	Sale	$445,000	−7.9%	−31.0%	−30.1%
January 13, 2014	January 9, 2014	MSM	Sale	$95,467	−1.2%	−21.2%	−19.4%
August 6, 2013	August 2, 2013	MSM	Sale	$842,700	−6.8%	−4.5%	−12.3%
May 6, 2013	May 3, 2013	MSM	Sale	$829,282	−2.5%	−5.4%	−4.3%
November 20, 2012	November 19, 2012	MSM	Sale	$1,598,964	+13.0%	−19.9%	−19.2%
November 19, 2012	November 16, 2012	MSM	Sale	$364,000	+11.6%	−20.1%	−20.2%
November 2, 2012	November 1, 2012	MSM	Sale	$277,695	+5.2%	−16.6%	−19.7%
January 10, 2012	January 6, 2012	MSM	Sale	$1,080,108	−0.7%	−12.2%	−8.6%
November 1, 2011	October 28, 2011	MSM	Sale	$2,085,193	+7.4%	−7.9%	−3.5%
April 21, 2011	April 20, 2011	MSM	Sale	$703,197	−7.1%	+0.5%	+6.6%
April 15, 2011	April 13, 2011	MSM	Sale	$703,600	−7.9%	+7.4%	+5.1%
April 13, 2011	April 11, 2011	MSM	Sale	$714,239	−5.8%	+6.8%	+5.1%
February 3, 2011	February 2, 2011	MSM	Sale	$1,214,000	+13.4%	+24.1%	+23.8%
February 2, 2011	February 1, 2011	MSM	Sale	$608,000	+13.6%	+24.6%	+24.7%
January 11, 2011	January 10, 2011	MSM	Sale	$602,300	+13.9%	+20.1%	+16.8%
October 26, 2010	October 25, 2010	MSM	Sale	$1,688,149	−5.0%	+15.0%	+14.4%
April 13, 2010	April 9, 2010	MSM	Sale	$1,114,855	−1.4%	+19.6%	+22.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Cox Thomas traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.