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Newcastle Capital Group LLC: insider trades

Officer at Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. 6 open-market purchases and no sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from October 13, 2010 to May 18, 2022.

Would copying Newcastle Capital Group LLC’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio. None of these trades can be measured yet: either the window after the report has not finished or the share price was under $5 when it was reported.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Rave Restaurant Group, Inc. RAVE Chairman60October 13, 2010May 18, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
May 18, 2022May 16, 2022 RAVE Purchase $32,222 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 10, 2011March 8, 2011 RAVE Purchase $24,000 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 8, 2011March 4, 2011 RAVE Purchase $14,572 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 3, 2011March 1, 2011 RAVE Purchase $37,462 not yetnot yetnot yet
October 21, 2010October 13, 2010 RAVE Purchase $50,135 not yetnot yetnot yet
October 13, 2010October 11, 2010 RAVE Purchase $91,960 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Newcastle Capital Group LLC traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.