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Zausner Freeman: insider trades

Officer, Other at Urban Outfitters Inc. No open-market purchases and 9 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from September 16, 2010 to July 10, 2013.

What happened after Zausner Freeman’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −30.3% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 9 −3.9% −2.3% 89% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 9 −30.3% −30.9% 100% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 9 −29.4% −30.5% 100% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Urban Outfitters Inc URBN Chief Operating Officer09September 16, 2010July 10, 2013

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
July 10, 2013July 8, 2013 URBN Sale $1,187,470 −16.7%−42.0%−40.5%
June 3, 2013May 30, 2013 URBN Sale $3,003,577 −2.3%−40.4%−38.5%
April 16, 2013April 12, 2013 URBN Sale $1,660,800 −1.6%−30.9%−29.6%
April 4, 2013April 2, 2013 URBN Sale $3,843,200 −2.9%−27.5%−30.5%
March 26, 2013March 22, 2013 URBN Sale $159,760 −2.1%−28.7%−27.4%
March 19, 2013March 15, 2013 URBN Sale $4,044,341 −6.0%−33.5%−34.5%
September 13, 2012September 11, 2012 URBN Sale $779,300 +1.5%−24.5%−21.6%
August 28, 2012August 24, 2012 URBN Sale $1,108,500 −1.2%−8.2%−4.9%
September 16, 2010September 16, 2010 URBN Sale $516,900 −3.5%−37.4%−36.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Zausner Freeman traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.