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Rafael Betsy: insider trades

Officer, Director at 2 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from April 27, 2010 to December 1, 2023.

What happened after Rafael Betsy’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +15.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 25% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 16 +1.4% +1.3% 38% 9 0.57 0.59 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 16 +15.6% +16.4% 25% 9 1.00 0.34 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 16 +13.5% +10.3% 31% 10 1.18 0.27 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Autodesk, Inc. ADSK —011October 6, 2014December 1, 2023
Apple Inc. AAPL VP, Corporate Controller05April 27, 2010May 10, 2012

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
December 1, 2023December 1, 2023 ADSK Sale $67,227 +1.4%+2.6%−0.4%
November 1, 2023November 1, 2023 ADSK Sale $61,219 +12.1%+10.3%+7.1%
October 3, 2023October 2, 2023 ADSK Sale $63,673 +0.1%−5.8%−5.7%
September 1, 2023September 1, 2023 ADSK Sale $69,238 −1.2%−9.3%−7.6%
June 17, 2019June 17, 2019 ADSK Sale $321,815 −8.5%+37.6%+42.7%
June 13, 2019June 15, 2018 ADSK Sale $1,248,038 −7.6%+36.5%+10.3%
June 28, 2017June 27, 2017 ADSK Sale $250,089 +5.7%+14.8%+10.3%
August 31, 2016August 30, 2016 ADSK Sale $299,405 +1.2%+52.5%+51.4%
March 24, 2016March 23, 2016 ADSK Sale $404,564 −5.9%+32.3%+32.0%
June 24, 2015June 23, 2015 ADSK Sale $217,560 −4.1%+2.4%+5.8%
October 6, 2014October 3, 2014 ADSK Sale $246,510 −3.9%−24.2%−26.8%
May 10, 2012May 9, 2012 AAPL Sale $1,690,249 +5.8%−47.9%−41.6%
October 24, 2011October 21, 2011 AAPL Sale $3,021,975 +3.9%+38.7%+43.9%
April 26, 2011April 25, 2011 AAPL Sale $1,040,276 +15.4%+68.1%+53.8%
October 25, 2010October 21, 2010 AAPL Sale $2,234,539 +1.8%+23.4%+22.7%
April 27, 2010April 23, 2010 AAPL Sale $578,600 +6.5%+17.9%+17.5%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Rafael Betsy traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.