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Whitebox Advisors LLC: insider trades

10% owner at 3 companies we cover. No open-market purchases and 19 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from August 20, 2015 to March 10, 2022.

What happened after Whitebox Advisors LLC’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −36.8% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 87% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 −12.2% −12.8% 73% 5 −1.39 0.24 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 −36.8% −19.2% 87% 5 −2.44 0.071 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 −38.9% −21.1% 87% 5 −2.66 0.057 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
PAR Pacific Holdings, Inc. PARR —012August 20, 2015October 20, 2017
Hycroft Mining Holding Corp HYMC —06December 3, 2020March 10, 2022
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. AMR —01September 20, 2019September 20, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 10, 2022March 8, 2022 HYMC Sale $7,192,009 not yetnot yetnot yet
November 12, 2021November 10, 2021 HYMC Sale $202,195 not yetnot yetnot yet
September 7, 2021September 2, 2021 HYMC Sale $5,920,000 not yetnot yetnot yet
March 1, 2021February 25, 2021 HYMC Sale $70,383 −55.0%−108.4%−109.0%
December 22, 2020December 18, 2020 HYMC Sale $418,151 −56.8%−121.2%−116.0%
December 3, 2020December 1, 2020 HYMC Sale $725,128 −21.1%−115.6%−115.2%
September 20, 2019September 19, 2019 AMR Sale $16,495,000 not yetnot yetnot yet
October 20, 2017October 18, 2017 PARR Sale $2,205,797 −16.2%−21.8%−18.5%
October 13, 2017October 11, 2017 PARR Sale $2,408,164 −17.3%−18.0%−17.3%
October 10, 2017October 5, 2017 PARR Sale $10,499,109 −18.2%−17.3%−22.3%
September 26, 2017September 22, 2017 PARR Sale $2,084,267 −12.8%−19.2%−21.0%
September 19, 2017September 15, 2017 PARR Sale $3,684,185 −7.6%−18.5%−16.7%
September 13, 2017September 11, 2017 PARR Sale $7,284,331 −3.2%−13.9%−7.0%
August 30, 2017August 28, 2017 PARR Sale $1,738,118 +9.0%−5.5%−20.1%
November 18, 2016November 16, 2016 PARR Sale $1,548,122 −7.5%+16.7%+11.2%
September 13, 2016September 9, 2016 PARR Sale $2,427,513 +8.4%+31.1%+19.1%
February 2, 2016January 29, 2016 PARR Sale $2,603,503 −25.8%−58.6%−60.3%
November 3, 2015October 30, 2015 PARR Sale $3,030,290 +7.0%−40.0%−48.5%
August 20, 2015August 18, 2015 PARR Sale $2,100,000 +33.6%−42.5%−41.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Whitebox Advisors LLC traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.