undamentalytics Newsletter

Ares Management LLC and related entities: insider trades

Director, 10% owner at 8 companies we cover. 2 open-market purchases and 16 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 10, 2010 to October 27, 2026. Trades reported separately by several related funds or companies are counted once, under this name.

Would copying Ares Management LLC and related entities’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Too few purchases to judge. None of their purchases has 12 months of prices after the report; we judge insiders once they have 20. The figures below can swing a long way on a handful of trades. After their sales, the shares moved +20.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 14% trailed it. None of their purchases could be priced, so there is no copy portfolio.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Ares Management LLC and related entities: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 14 +12.7% +11.0% 14% 6 2.60 0.048 Some evidence: seller wrong
Sales, 12 months after the report 14 +20.2% +23.7% 14% 6 1.19 0.29 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 14 +18.9% +21.5% 7% 6 0.95 0.39 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
California Resources Corp CRC —08June 15, 2021March 9, 2022
Douglas Dynamics, Inc PLOW —02May 10, 2010December 10, 2010
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. FND —02March 4, 2019May 22, 2020
Savers Value Village, Inc. SVV —02May 20, 2025August 17, 2026
LyondellBasell LYB —01December 9, 2010December 9, 2010
Battalion OIL Corp BATL —01August 15, 2018August 15, 2018
Ares Management ARES —10October 27, 2026October 27, 2026
Claritev Corp CTEV —10October 27, 2026October 27, 2026

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
October 27, 2026October 23, 2026 CTEV Purchase $1,678,106 not yetnot yetnot yet
October 27, 2026October 23, 2026 ARES Purchase $1,678,106 not yetnot yetnot yet
August 17, 2026August 13, 2026 SVV Sale $235,750,000 not yetnot yetnot yet
May 20, 2025May 16, 2025 SVV Sale $132,545,600 +7.7%−44.2%−54.5%
March 9, 2022March 7, 2022 CRC Sale $25,521,500 +15.8%−1.9%+2.7%
February 15, 2022February 11, 2022 CRC Sale $4,463,626 +11.3%+5.2%+2.4%
January 20, 2022January 18, 2022 CRC Sale $7,741,040 +7.9%+24.6%+23.4%
December 29, 2021December 27, 2021 CRC Sale $4,308,000 +10.7%+22.8%+20.9%
December 15, 2021December 13, 2021 CRC Sale $4,375,284 +7.5%+20.3%+15.5%
June 25, 2021June 23, 2021 CRC Sale $6,535,860 +30.8%+47.7%+22.1%
June 21, 2021June 16, 2021 CRC Sale $10,439,250 +25.2%+28.4%+48.1%
June 15, 2021June 11, 2021 CRC Sale $7,608,400 +23.0%+48.1%+50.0%
May 22, 2020May 22, 2020 FND Sale $155,925,000 +25.6%+50.2%+52.4%
March 4, 2019February 28, 2019 FND Sale $250,252,538 −3.5%+28.2%+29.0%
August 15, 2018August 13, 2018 BATL Sale $3,764,195 not yetnot yetnot yet
December 10, 2010December 8, 2010 PLOW Sale $1,320,000 −7.1%+5.7%+4.8%
December 9, 2010December 7, 2010 LYB Sale $36,521,057 +21.0%+21.4%+19.8%
May 10, 2010May 10, 2010 PLOW Sale $12,422,441 +1.9%+25.8%+27.3%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Ares Management LLC and related entities traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.