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Cook Stephen: insider trades

Officer at Sirius XM Holdings Inc. No open-market purchases and 12 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 13, 2013 to February 5, 2019.

What happened after Cook Stephen’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −9.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 75% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 8 −1.4% −1.2% 50% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the report 8 −9.7% −11.5% 75% 3 — — Not enough years
Sales, 12 months after the trade 8 −9.9% −12.1% 75% 3 — — Not enough years

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. SIRI EVP, Sales and Automotive012February 13, 2013February 5, 2019

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 5, 2019February 5, 2019 SIRI Sale $344,003 −9.5%−3.4%−4.1%
July 30, 2018July 26, 2018 SIRI Sale $2,990,304 −14.0%−16.9%−22.3%
May 3, 2018May 2, 2018 SIRI Sale $1,250,588 −3.9%−24.0%−20.2%
May 1, 2018April 27, 2018 SIRI Sale $478,151 +1.5%−20.2%−19.6%
April 27, 2018April 26, 2018 SIRI Sale $619,442 +4.3%−18.9%−18.8%
February 7, 2018February 5, 2018 SIRI Sale $583,073 +10.8%−6.1%−5.4%
November 17, 2017November 17, 2017 SIRI Sale $462,525 +8.2%+4.7%+5.3%
August 1, 2017July 28, 2017 SIRI Sale $826,894 −8.5%+7.2%+5.7%
November 21, 2016November 21, 2016 SIRI Sale $228,500 not yetnot yetnot yet
November 12, 2015November 11, 2015 SIRI Sale $922,176 not yetnot yetnot yet
June 4, 2015June 3, 2015 SIRI Sale $512,511 not yetnot yetnot yet
February 13, 2013February 11, 2013 SIRI Sale $330,750 not yetnot yetnot yet

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Cook Stephen traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.