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Goadby David J: insider trades

Officer at Compass Minerals International Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from March 16, 2010 to March 15, 2016.

What happened after Goadby David J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −11.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 92% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −2.3% +1.4% 39% 7 −0.74 0.49 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −11.4% −8.3% 92% 7 −4.49 0.004 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −12.0% −9.1% 100% 7 −5.13 0.002 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Compass Minerals International Inc CMP Vice President013March 16, 2010March 15, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
March 15, 2016March 14, 2016 CMP Sale $379,998 +4.8%−22.0%−20.8%
March 13, 2015March 13, 2015 CMP Sale $288,300 −9.1%−18.4%−19.8%
November 10, 2014November 7, 2014 CMP Sale $737,693 +1.4%−7.3%−7.5%
March 12, 2014March 11, 2014 CMP Sale $182,267 +6.4%+1.5%−0.9%
May 21, 2013May 20, 2013 CMP Sale $723,888 −17.0%−8.3%−9.1%
May 3, 2013May 2, 2013 CMP Sale $774,360 −19.3%−10.1%−10.3%
March 12, 2013March 11, 2013 CMP Sale $190,301 +8.5%−7.8%−7.2%
November 2, 2012November 2, 2012 CMP Sale $1,119,580 −13.4%−29.2%−29.5%
March 13, 2012March 12, 2012 CMP Sale $198,184 +2.1%−1.9%−7.1%
March 9, 2012March 8, 2012 CMP Sale $177,100 +2.8%−7.1%−4.3%
March 11, 2011March 11, 2011 CMP Sale $219,659 −0.4%−24.3%−23.1%
November 24, 2010November 24, 2010 CMP Sale $82,280 +2.6%−13.3%−12.6%
March 16, 2010March 15, 2010 CMP Sale $241,440 +0.6%−0.5%−4.1%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Goadby David J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.