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Donnelly Timothy J: insider trades

Officer at American Vanguard Corp. No open-market purchases and 6 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from September 11, 2012 to June 7, 2022.

What happened after Donnelly Timothy J’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −34.5% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 100% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 6 −10.5% −12.4% 67% 6 −2.61 0.048 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 6 −34.5% −28.4% 100% 6 −4.23 0.008 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 6 −35.5% −30.4% 100% 6 −4.63 0.006 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
American Vanguard Corp AVD See Remarks06September 11, 2012June 7, 2022

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 7, 2022June 6, 2022 AVD Sale $316,068 −19.0%−34.4%−31.7%
August 20, 2020August 19, 2020 AVD Sale $241,018 +2.1%−22.4%−29.0%
December 5, 2017December 4, 2017 AVD Sale $77,440 0.0%−21.7%−22.5%
December 13, 2016December 12, 2016 AVD Sale $57,240 −21.4%−18.3%−22.1%
November 7, 2013November 6, 2013 AVD Sale $128,025 −15.6%−72.1%−72.3%
September 11, 2012September 10, 2012 AVD Sale $120,480 −9.2%−38.1%−35.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Donnelly Timothy J traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.