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Frodsham James: insider trades

Officer at Ciena. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from December 21, 2010 to September 18, 2015.

What happened after Frodsham James’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −18.2% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 77% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 +0.9% −2.8% 54% 5 0.06 0.96 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −18.2% −14.7% 77% 5 −2.76 0.051 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −17.9% −16.6% 77% 5 −2.60 0.060 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Ciena CIEN SR. VP, Chief Strategy Officer013December 21, 2010September 18, 2015

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
September 18, 2015September 16, 2015 CIEN Sale $111,450 −13.3%−14.3%−16.6%
June 19, 2015June 17, 2015 CIEN Sale $194,625 −6.0%−20.8%−20.4%
March 17, 2015March 16, 2015 CIEN Sale $106,250 +21.7%−14.7%−19.8%
July 11, 2013July 9, 2013 CIEN Sale $397,800 +21.4%−24.7%−16.3%
June 12, 2013June 10, 2013 CIEN Sale $402,502 +16.2%−11.9%−8.6%
April 15, 2013April 11, 2013 CIEN Sale $32,900 +31.7%+5.4%+2.9%
January 4, 2013January 2, 2013 CIEN Sale $81,751 −11.2%+16.6%+14.6%
June 19, 2012June 18, 2012 CIEN Sale $110,040 −17.7%+2.7%+6.4%
April 16, 2012April 12, 2012 CIEN Sale $24,360 −17.5%−26.3%−19.6%
January 13, 2012January 11, 2012 CIEN Sale $41,610 +6.3%−10.3%−14.2%
April 1, 2011March 31, 2011 CIEN Sale $130,122 −29.3%−43.3%−46.0%
January 7, 2011January 6, 2011 CIEN Sale $94,160 −2.8%−48.1%−45.8%
December 21, 2010December 17, 2010 CIEN Sale $127,101 +12.0%−46.5%−49.6%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Frodsham James traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.