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Hagerman Douglas M: insider trades

Officer at Rockwell Automation. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 17, 2011 to January 31, 2017.

What happened after Hagerman Douglas M’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +9.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 40% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 +1.7% +4.2% 40% 7 −0.51 0.63 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 +9.6% +14.4% 40% 7 0.37 0.73 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 +9.7% +14.4% 40% 7 0.27 0.79 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Rockwell Automation ROK Sr. VP, Gen Counsel and Sec.015February 17, 2011January 31, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
January 31, 2017January 30, 2017 ROK Sale $159,054 −0.1%+11.3%+10.1%
December 1, 2016November 30, 2016 ROK Sale $561,960 +4.3%+19.4%+24.5%
November 14, 2016November 11, 2016 ROK Sale $1,047,680 +6.2%+24.2%+27.2%
November 10, 2016November 9, 2016 ROK Sale $1,165,650 +6.9%+27.2%+30.1%
August 29, 2016August 26, 2016 ROK Sale $166,838 +10.8%+26.3%+23.3%
August 25, 2016August 23, 2016 ROK Sale $1,155,464 +11.0%+23.3%+23.5%
August 12, 2016August 10, 2016 ROK Sale $416,535 +12.2%+26.1%+25.3%
August 11, 2015August 10, 2015 ROK Sale $118,530 −9.9%−0.8%−3.5%
May 13, 2015May 13, 2015 ROK Sale $297,600 −5.7%−5.2%−5.2%
May 5, 2015May 4, 2015 ROK Sale $430,583 −4.9%−5.8%−5.3%
August 21, 2014August 20, 2014 ROK Sale $468,720 −8.4%−4.7%−7.7%
November 12, 2013November 11, 2013 ROK Sale $6,299,375 +0.2%−19.1%−15.2%
November 30, 2012November 30, 2012 ROK Sale $95,400 +5.0%+15.1%+14.4%
November 29, 2012November 29, 2012 ROK Sale $15,902 +4.2%+14.4%+16.7%
February 17, 2011February 16, 2011 ROK Sale $663,300 −6.7%−8.0%−12.4%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Hagerman Douglas M traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.