Payne Richard B Jr: insider trades

Officer at U.S. Bancorp. No open-market purchases and 20 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 17, 2010 to February 17, 2016.

What happened after Payne Richard B Jr’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −1.4% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 60% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

Payne Richard B Jr: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report	20	−0.4%	−1.2%	55%	6	0.79	0.46	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	20	−1.4%	−1.7%	60%	6	0.38	0.72	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	20	−2.0%	−1.6%	60%	6	0.16	0.88	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
U.S. Bancorp USB	Vice Chairman	0	20	November 17, 2010	February 17, 2016

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
February 17, 2016	February 16, 2016	USB	Sale	$2,250,208	−1.2%	+18.0%	+13.4%
November 9, 2015	November 6, 2015	USB	Sale	$2,199,500	−1.3%	+4.4%	+1.7%
October 30, 2015	October 28, 2015	USB	Sale	$2,152,500	+1.3%	+4.6%	+2.3%
May 11, 2015	May 8, 2015	USB	Sale	$1,095,750	+4.2%	−2.7%	−2.3%
February 9, 2015	February 5, 2015	USB	Sale	$4,462,314	−2.8%	−1.7%	+0.2%
January 23, 2015	January 22, 2015	USB	Sale	$2,172,000	−4.7%	−2.7%	−1.5%
November 19, 2014	November 18, 2014	USB	Sale	$2,201,500	−1.2%	−1.2%	−1.5%
August 13, 2014	August 13, 2014	USB	Sale	$496,080	+1.6%	+3.0%	+2.3%
July 31, 2014	July 30, 2014	USB	Sale	$2,113,548	−1.5%	+0.4%	−1.7%
July 24, 2014	July 24, 2014	USB	Sale	$2,993,200	−4.0%	+0.6%	+1.6%
July 22, 2014	July 18, 2014	USB	Sale	$4,421,550	−2.8%	+2.1%	+1.6%
May 1, 2014	April 30, 2014	USB	Sale	$2,854,600	+0.1%	−4.3%	−5.3%
April 24, 2014	April 22, 2014	USB	Sale	$1,221,300	+0.3%	−7.1%	−6.5%
February 3, 2014	January 31, 2014	USB	Sale	$2,003,500	−3.8%	−4.7%	−5.6%
January 29, 2014	January 28, 2014	USB	Sale	$4,796,313	−4.4%	−6.6%	−7.8%
May 9, 2013	May 8, 2013	USB	Sale	$996,900	+7.5%	+5.2%	+6.7%
October 22, 2012	October 18, 2012	USB	Sale	$1,963,500	−6.8%	−10.9%	−9.5%
May 15, 2012	May 14, 2012	USB	Sale	$190,800	+0.8%	−12.6%	−14.7%
April 24, 2012	April 24, 2012	USB	Sale	$1,580,500	+9.0%	−9.4%	−10.5%
November 17, 2010	November 15, 2010	USB	Sale	$247,391	+1.7%	−1.7%	−2.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Payne Richard B Jr traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.