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Galford Robert: insider trades

Director at Forrester Research, Inc. No open-market purchases and 13 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 24, 2010 to February 14, 2024.

What happened after Galford Robert’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −11.9% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 69% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 13 −5.2% −2.0% 62% 11 −1.11 0.29 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 13 −11.9% −4.9% 69% 11 −1.50 0.17 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 13 −13.5% −4.5% 77% 10 −1.68 0.13 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Forrester Research, Inc. FORR —013November 24, 2010February 14, 2024

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 14, 2024February 13, 2024 FORR Sale $269,490 −15.1%−63.7%−58.9%
February 15, 2023February 13, 2023 FORR Sale $248,550 −26.3%−66.3%−60.7%
August 4, 2021August 2, 2021 FORR Sale $137,430 +14.1%−0.5%+8.2%
December 16, 2020December 14, 2020 FORR Sale $514,040 −2.0%+11.6%+4.6%
March 14, 2018March 14, 2018 FORR Sale $510,360 −1.3%+11.9%+13.1%
December 5, 2016December 1, 2016 FORR Sale $616,410 −14.7%−5.9%−4.2%
November 3, 2016November 1, 2016 FORR Sale $49,284 +2.2%+2.3%−0.1%
May 19, 2015May 15, 2014 FORR Sale $300,117 −2.8%+8.6%−18.7%
June 2, 2014May 29, 2014 FORR Sale $67,386 +4.2%−12.4%−20.4%
September 13, 2013September 12, 2013 FORR Sale $422,873 +8.7%−4.9%−4.5%
May 17, 2012May 15, 2012 FORR Sale $316,359 −20.4%−19.2%−17.6%
May 2, 2012April 30, 2012 FORR Sale $442,138 −15.4%−14.2%−12.6%
November 24, 2010November 23, 2010 FORR Sale $1,688,124 +0.7%−2.3%−3.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Galford Robert traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.