Trafelet Remy W: insider trades

Chief executive, Director, 10% owner at Alico, Inc. 31 open-market purchases and 8 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from November 21, 2013 to March 8, 2021.

Would copying Trafelet Remy W’s purchases have beaten the S&P 500?

Buying each purchase the day after it was reported, an equal amount each, and holding it 12 months or until they reported a sale would have turned $10,000 on November 22, 2013 into $6,780 by November 2, 2026, −3.0% a year. The copy held shares only 20% of the time, so the fair comparison is the S&P 500 on those same days with Treasury bills otherwise: $15,897, +3.7% a year (the S&P 500 held throughout made $52,050, +13.6% a year). Beta against the index was 0.09. Twelve months after each report, the average purchase was −39.2% against the S&P 500 (median −40.3%), and 0% beat it: suggestive (p = 0.013 over 4 years), but not enough on its own to rule out luck. Measured from the trade date, the insider’s own timing, the average was −37.6%. After their sales, the shares moved −3.7% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 50% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Copying Trafelet Remy WS&P 500, same days investedS&P 500, held throughout $10,000 copying Trafelet Remy W’s open-market purchases from November 22, 2013, before costs and taxes, marked weekly. Each purchase gets the same starting stake, bought at the close of the first trading day after the report and sold 12 months later or the day after a reported sale of that stock; uninvested money earns the Treasury bill rate. “Same days invested” holds the S&P 500 only on the days the copy held shares, Treasury bills otherwise.

Return a year, copying: −3.0%
S&P 500, same days invested: +3.7% (held throughout +13.6%)
Time in shares: 20%
Sharpe ratio (S&P 500): −0.29 (0.72)
Biggest drop (S&P 500): −63% (−34%)
Market sensitivity (beta): 0.09
Purchases copied: 31

Trade by trade

Trafelet Remy W: trades against the S&P 500 afterwards
Measured	Trades counted	Average vs S&P 500	Median	Went the right way	Years	t-statistic	p-value	Evidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report	31	−3.0%	−3.9%	36%	4	0.06	0.95	No reliable evidence
Purchases, 6 months after the report	31	−11.7%	−11.7%	0%	4	−6.61	0.007	Some evidence: behind
Purchases, 12 months after the report	31	−39.2%	−40.3%	0%	4	−5.33	0.013	Some evidence: behind
Purchases, 12 months after the trade	31	−37.6%	−40.8%	0%	4	−4.24	0.024	Some evidence: behind
Sales, 3 months after the report	8	−3.0%	−0.7%	50%	5	−0.92	0.41	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report	8	−3.7%	−3.6%	50%	5	−0.07	0.95	No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade	8	−4.6%	−5.8%	75%	5	−0.20	0.85	No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

Company	Title on the latest filing	Purchases	Sales	First report	Latest report
Alico, Inc. ALCO	President & CEO	31	8	November 21, 2013	March 8, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

Reported	Traded	Company	Trade	Value	3 months after report	12 months after report	12 months after trade
March 8, 2021	March 4, 2021	ALCO	Sale	$1,891,200	−3.3%	+4.5%	+5.3%
February 11, 2021	February 9, 2021	ALCO	Sale	$1,547,613	+0.3%	+0.1%	−4.3%
December 22, 2020	December 18, 2020	ALCO	Sale	$16,090	−11.7%	−10.0%	−7.3%
December 17, 2020	December 14, 2020	ALCO	Sale	$1,405,058	−13.6%	−7.3%	−10.5%
November 26, 2019	November 25, 2019	ALCO	Sale	$46,652	+1.0%	−21.0%	−20.0%
November 22, 2019	November 20, 2019	ALCO	Sale	$288,075	+4.7%	−20.0%	−21.9%
October 5, 2018	October 3, 2018	ALCO	Sale	$17,843,030	+0.7%	+0.2%	−1.9%
March 28, 2016	March 24, 2016	ALCO	Purchase	$160,308	+3.0%	−20.9%	−22.0%
March 2, 2016	February 29, 2016	ALCO	Purchase	$158,136	+5.8%	−26.0%	−16.9%
August 13, 2015	August 11, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$269,814	−4.3%	−41.2%	−33.2%
August 11, 2015	August 7, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$409,588	−0.7%	−40.3%	−38.2%
July 1, 2015	June 30, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$63,828	−3.9%	−36.3%	−38.6%
June 12, 2015	June 11, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$892,428	−9.1%	−39.0%	−40.8%
April 16, 2015	April 14, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$626,815	−5.7%	−44.6%	−48.0%
April 14, 2015	April 10, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$237,717	−10.0%	−48.6%	−47.0%
April 10, 2015	April 8, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$259,961	−8.4%	−47.2%	−47.6%
April 8, 2015	April 6, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$647,487	−7.5%	−47.6%	−46.7%
April 6, 2015	April 2, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$393,432	−9.1%	−48.0%	−47.2%
April 1, 2015	March 31, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$585,590	−10.7%	−47.2%	−47.5%
March 30, 2015	March 27, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$226,341	−11.6%	−47.5%	−47.2%
March 27, 2015	March 25, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$371,784	−11.5%	−48.3%	−47.2%
March 24, 2015	March 23, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$1,588,850	−10.4%	−47.2%	−42.6%
March 23, 2015	March 19, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$212,971	−8.2%	−45.8%	−39.8%
March 19, 2015	March 18, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$461,469	+2.5%	−38.6%	−40.3%
March 18, 2015	March 16, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$109,317	+6.3%	−39.8%	−45.0%
March 13, 2015	March 12, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$235,229	+5.6%	−45.0%	−45.4%
March 12, 2015	March 11, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$138,395	+2.7%	−45.6%	−43.6%
March 6, 2015	March 4, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$375,863	+11.1%	−39.6%	−36.2%
March 2, 2015	February 26, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$127,374	+8.3%	−40.0%	−43.2%
February 25, 2015	February 23, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$248,896	+7.1%	−43.2%	−43.5%
February 18, 2015	February 13, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$284,381	−2.1%	−46.9%	−43.1%
January 15, 2015	January 14, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$230,543	−12.5%	−37.5%	−39.6%
January 14, 2015	January 12, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$666,621	−13.0%	−37.3%	−32.6%
January 5, 2015	January 2, 2015	ALCO	Purchase	$244,406	−6.8%	−29.8%	−24.2%
January 2, 2015	December 31, 2014	ALCO	Purchase	$158,564	−3.5%	−29.3%	−23.5%
December 23, 2014	December 22, 2014	ALCO	Purchase	$653,729	+3.1%	−24.0%	−20.8%
December 22, 2014	December 19, 2014	ALCO	Purchase	$1,823,885	+2.2%	−24.7%	−17.0%
April 3, 2014	April 3, 2014	ALCO	Sale	$28,110	−1.6%	+24.2%	+23.8%
November 21, 2013	November 19, 2013	ALCO	Purchase	$137,841,909	−2.5%	−19.2%	−16.8%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Trafelet Remy W traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.