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Borok Gil: insider trades

Chief financial officer at CBRE Group. No open-market purchases and 15 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from July 15, 2010 to August 4, 2017.

What happened after Borok Gil’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved 0.0% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 40% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 15 −2.5% −0.6% 53% 7 −0.46 0.66 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 15 0.0% +7.8% 40% 7 −0.15 0.89 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 15 +1.3% +10.0% 40% 7 −0.01 1.00 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
CBRE Group CBRE Dpty CFO & Chief Acctg Officer015July 15, 2010August 4, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
August 4, 2017August 4, 2017 CBRE Sale $956,656 +1.7%+15.0%+15.1%
February 17, 2017February 16, 2017 CBRE Sale $1,279,988 −5.6%+8.9%+10.5%
August 13, 2015August 11, 2015 CBRE Sale $734,249 −6.5%−29.3%−28.8%
November 7, 2014November 5, 2014 CBRE Sale $399,151 +7.1%+8.7%+8.6%
May 22, 2014May 20, 2014 CBRE Sale $876,000 +3.0%+18.7%+17.6%
July 15, 2013July 11, 2013 CBRE Sale $18,180 −7.6%+17.3%+16.2%
March 8, 2013March 7, 2013 CBRE Sale $281,814 −14.1%−12.1%−9.6%
September 12, 2012September 10, 2012 CBRE Sale $177,664 +0.5%+1.4%+15.9%
August 7, 2012August 3, 2012 CBRE Sale $276,478 −0.6%+7.8%+10.0%
July 12, 2012July 10, 2012 CBRE Sale $12,010 +14.6%+25.9%+28.6%
September 9, 2011September 8, 2011 CBRE Sale $216,028 +1.0%−1.0%−3.2%
July 15, 2011July 13, 2011 CBRE Sale $18,133 −28.4%−37.2%−37.8%
May 20, 2011May 18, 2011 CBRE Sale $178,266 −32.8%−38.9%−41.1%
September 10, 2010September 9, 2010 CBRE Sale $167,532 −1.1%−28.7%−28.3%
July 15, 2010July 13, 2010 CBRE Sale $10,615 +31.8%+44.1%+45.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Borok Gil traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.