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Mirosh Walentin: insider trades

Director, Other at Murphy OIL Corp. No open-market purchases and 17 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from February 10, 2015 to June 24, 2021.

What happened after Mirosh Walentin’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved +18.1% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 47% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 17 −5.9% −12.7% 65% 5 −1.43 0.23 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the report 17 +18.1% +17.8% 47% 5 0.10 0.92 No reliable evidence
Sales, 12 months after the trade 17 +19.3% +19.8% 47% 5 0.19 0.86 No reliable evidence

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Murphy OIL Corp MUR —017February 10, 2015June 24, 2021

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
June 24, 2021June 23, 2021 MUR Sale $203,360 −15.7%+41.7%+37.5%
May 19, 2021May 19, 2021 MUR Sale $30,225 −13.4%+71.1%+73.1%
May 13, 2021May 11, 2021 MUR Sale $78,720 +0.4%+75.5%+69.1%
March 26, 2021March 26, 2021 MUR Sale $50,850 +33.5%+125.2%+138.9%
February 17, 2021February 17, 2021 MUR Sale $74,750 +38.9%+114.1%+105.2%
February 5, 2021February 4, 2021 MUR Sale $32,525 +34.6%+121.8%+143.9%
December 16, 2020December 16, 2020 MUR Sale $25,220 +37.8%+85.9%+89.3%
August 11, 2020August 11, 2020 MUR Sale $25,248 −47.9%+19.4%+19.8%
March 3, 2020March 3, 2020 MUR Sale $19,000 −25.1%−19.0%−32.2%
February 24, 2020February 24, 2020 MUR Sale $20,880 −32.3%−36.7%−41.9%
February 4, 2020February 4, 2020 MUR Sale $20,624 −39.4%−57.9%−54.4%
December 18, 2019December 17, 2019 MUR Sale $12,725 −49.2%−67.5%−67.1%
November 12, 2019November 11, 2019 MUR Sale $22,104 −15.5%−79.9%−80.0%
August 15, 2019August 15, 2019 MUR Sale $25,187 +18.0%−36.6%−34.3%
June 9, 2017June 8, 2017 MUR Sale $24,010 −10.4%+17.8%+29.0%
August 17, 2015August 17, 2015 MUR Sale $12,904 −2.3%−9.5%−11.1%
February 10, 2015February 9, 2015 MUR Sale $22,923 −12.7%−57.0%−56.2%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Mirosh Walentin traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.