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Bischmann Joanne M: insider trades

Officer at Harley-davidson, Inc. No open-market purchases and 17 sales not made under a pre-set plan, reported from May 1, 2012 to February 8, 2017.

What happened after Bischmann Joanne M’s sales?

After their sales, the shares moved −19.6% against the index over 12 months on average (a negative figure means selling was the right call); 88% trailed it.

With 296 insiders tested, some will look skilled or unskilled by chance alone: when we replaced each insider’s stocks with random companies bought on the same days, about 5.7 cleared the bar ahead and 23.3 behind. One record on its own proves little.

Trade by trade

MeasuredTrades countedAverage vs S&P 500MedianWent the right wayYearst-statisticp-valueEvidence
Purchases, 3 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 6 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the report 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Purchases, 12 months after the trade 0 — — — — — — Not enough years
Sales, 3 months after the report 17 −5.9% −5.8% 65% 6 −3.13 0.026 Some evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the report 17 −19.6% −18.1% 88% 6 −4.54 0.006 Strong evidence: seller right
Sales, 12 months after the trade 17 −19.3% −16.9% 82% 6 −4.07 0.010 Strong evidence: seller right

“Average vs S&P 500” is the stock’s return including dividends minus the index’s over the same dates, from the close on the first trading day after the report, or from the close on the trade date. Only windows that have finished are counted. For sales, a negative figure means the stock lagged after it was sold, so selling was the right call (green). “Went the right way” is the share of purchases that beat the index, or of sales that trailed it. The t-statistic uses one average per year of reports, because one person’s trades bunch into the same stock and weeks, and needs trades in at least four different years; the p-value comes from the t distribution with that number of years (with four years, a t of 2 has p = 0.14). “Some evidence” means p under 5%, “strong evidence” p under 1% over at least six years.

Companies traded

CompanyTitle on the latest filingPurchasesSalesFirst reportLatest report
Harley-davidson, Inc. HOG Vice President, Communications017May 1, 2012February 8, 2017

Trades and what followed

Moves are against the S&P 500; green means the trade went the insider’s way.

ReportedTradedCompanyTradeValue3 months after report12 months after report12 months after trade
February 8, 2017February 7, 2017 HOG Sale $51,927 −5.8%−28.9%−31.1%
November 16, 2016November 14, 2016 HOG Sale $302,220 −9.1%−36.6%−39.7%
February 19, 2015February 17, 2015 HOG Sale $21,896 −11.7%−24.6%−27.6%
February 9, 2015February 5, 2015 HOG Sale $415,098 −13.5%−28.9%−26.7%
November 20, 2014November 18, 2014 HOG Sale $683,803 −9.8%−29.3%−29.8%
May 14, 2014May 12, 2014 HOG Sale $366,500 −16.8%−35.8%−34.8%
May 7, 2014May 5, 2014 HOG Sale $813,984 −17.3%−33.7%−33.5%
May 1, 2014April 29, 2014 HOG Sale $367,300 −17.2%−35.2%−35.6%
March 3, 2014February 28, 2014 HOG Sale $230,320 +4.0%−18.1%−15.8%
February 12, 2014February 10, 2014 HOG Sale $24,163 +7.3%−16.1%−16.7%
February 10, 2014February 6, 2014 HOG Sale $149,323 +9.2%−17.3%−16.9%
August 28, 2013August 26, 2013 HOG Sale $1,050,039 +1.8%−17.2%−14.8%
March 1, 2013February 28, 2013 HOG Sale $136,567 −4.3%+2.4%+2.0%
February 14, 2013February 13, 2013 HOG Sale $240,153 +2.7%−0.7%−0.2%
February 12, 2013February 11, 2013 HOG Sale $97,583 +0.6%−0.2%+0.3%
February 8, 2013February 7, 2013 HOG Sale $16,502 −0.4%+0.3%+4.0%
May 1, 2012April 27, 2012 HOG Sale $852,880 −20.3%−13.2%−11.7%

Open-market purchases and sales of at least $10,000 in companies we cover, from SEC Form 4 filings; sales made under a pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plan are not shown. “Not yet” means the window has not finished or the share price was under $5 at entry. These are the shares’ moves after each trade: they say nothing about why Bischmann Joanne M traded and do not suggest the use of non-public information. How every insider compares · the insider trading backtest.